Import cargo volume at the major container ports in the U.S. has hit its expected peak for the year and should gradually slow moving into the holiday season, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation(NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Cargo volumes will still be strong the rest of the year, but not as high as we expected a month ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers stocked up early this year as a safeguard against supply chain labor issues and are well-situated to meet consumer demand. Shoppers are spending more than they did last year, but the rate of growth we’ve seen the past couple of years has slowed and retailers are working to strike the right balance of supply and demand.”

With high-interest rates and inflation impacting consumers, particularly for groceries, automobiles and mortgages, discretionary spending growth has slowed, and retail cargo imports the NRF expects will decline, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted.

Consumer spending grew 1.8 percent year-over-year in the second quarter rather than the 2.3 percent the NRF originally estimated. Last month, the NRF noted that retail sales for the year could come in at the low end of its forecast of 4 percent to 6 percent year-over-year growth.

“We are already seeing this in the operational decisions carriers are making,” Hackett said. “They have slowed down their ships in an attempt to cut capacity without having to take vessels out of service as new, larger ones ordered when demand was higher are delivered. Even so, ships are not sailing fully loaded, and freight rates are declining as a result. That’s a further indication that no cargo growth from current levels is expected on the near-term horizon. Perhaps 2024 will be better.”

The NRF forecasted inbound volume at U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker to reach 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in August and stay at that level through October. That would have been the first time the 2 million TEU mark had been reached since October 2022. Instead, ports handled 1.96 million TEU (one 20-foot container or its equivalent) in August, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 2.3 percent from July and was the busiest month so far this year, but down 13.5 percent year-over-year.

Ports have not reported September numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.3 percent year-over-year. October is also forecasted at 1.94 million TEU, down 3.1 percent year-over-year.

November is forecasted at 1.91 million TEU, a 7.5 percent increase from the same time last year that would be the first year-over-year gain since June 2022. December is forecasted at 1.88 million TEU, up 8.9 percent year-over-year.

Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.1 million TEU, down 13.5 percent from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

January 2024 is forecasted to be the same as December at 1.88 million TEU, up 4.2 percent year-over-year, while February, historically the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, is forecasted at 1.74 million TEU, up 12.7 percent year-over-year.

Global Port Tracker, produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Photo courtesy Port of Los Angeles