NPD’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study predicts sales will increase between 4.3 percent to 5.1 percent for the “new holiday period” beginning mid-October with early promotions running through mid-January with gift card redemption. The study estimates also span a broader view of NPD’s discretionary categories.

NPD expects year-over-year growth of 2.5 percent to 3.4 percent during the traditional holiday period of November and December, across general merchandise categories. “Holiday has been redefined,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor, The NPD Group.

Highlights from the study:

  • Consumers plan to spend an average of $691 during the 2020 holiday shopping season — less than last year’s anticipated holiday spending but on par with 2018;
  • Consumers plans are not what they were last year, with the most significant change toward spending less;
  • The hottest industries of 2020, tech and home, will continue the momentum through the holiday period with significant growth, but holiday staples will see stability compared to last year — half of consumers plan to buy clothing, footwear and accessories as gifts this year;
  • Half of consumers plan to purchase intangible items/experiences as gifts including food subscriptions and streaming service subscriptions leading the gift list. Gift cards will be popular;
  • Consumers planning to spend early for holiday shopping is minimal compared with previous years;
  • 41 percent of consumers cited Black Friday, Thanksgiving Weekend and Cyber Monday as the time when they would get the best deals of the season;
  • 80 percent of consumers plan to shop online, but shoppers still plan to make 42 percent of holiday purchases in a retail store;
  • For the first time, free shipping surpassed special sale prices as the number one factor influencing where consumers decide to shop — cited by 41 percent of holiday shoppers.
  • 42 percent of holiday shoppers will ship most gifts to family/friends as a result of COVID-19 precautions;
  • 57 percent of shoppers rate the state of the economy as poor (up from 37 percent last year), and 30 percent said they will spend less because of the state of the economy (up from 23 percent in 2019), but consumer said their personal financial situations have not changed since 2019;
  • 40 percent of consumers said they would buy gifts to bring joy during challenging times;
  • 31 percent of consumers said they will do more self-gifting as pandemic-related retail therapy; and
  • Consumers are most influenced by a brand or retailer’s position on social issues, while political issues have fallen in impact.