According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales grew 2.5 percent year-over-year on Black Friday, slowing as expected from a gain of 12 percent on the same day a year ago.

Holiday forecasters have been widely forecasting that sales would slow back to pre-pandemic levels this year following pandemic stimulus-boosted gains in recent years and amid inflation and macroeconomic pressures.

The largest retail trade group, the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasted that U.S. holiday spending from November 1 through December 31 would climb 3 percent to 4 percent over 2022, consistent with the average annualized increase of 3.6 percent between 2010 and 2019. Holiday sales climbed 5.4 percent in 2022 year-over-year, 12.7 percent in 2021, and 8.3 percent in 2020.

In September, Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, said it anticipated U.S. retail sales, excluding automotive, to grow 3.7 percent during the holiday season, running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24.

In its Black Friday analysis, Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks, Inc., said, “Consumers are navigating the holiday season well and taking advantage of holiday promotions, giving them ample choice as they hunt for gifts for everyone on their list. Consumers are also shopping smarter, using all of their tools—from searching across channels to cross-checking on apps and websites—to maximize value while they spend time with friends and family.”

Key trends from Black Friday included:

  • E-commerce sales remained strong, increasing 8.5 percent YOY as consumers shopped deals online, avoiding crowds. Sporting events that aired on Friday made online shopping an appealing option for game day viewers to shop wherever they were watching. In-store sales increased +1.1 percent YOY.
  • In addition to shopping, Restaurants continued their growth streak with consumers gathering over meals with friends and family.
  • Retailers once again started their Black Friday sales early in the month, giving consumers time to search for promotions and get the best deals.
  • While experiential gifts have been a popular choice for the past few years, consumers continue to search for something to unwrap for the holidays, with Jewelry and Apparel being the top gifts of the day. Department Store sales, as well as Furniture and Furnishings, continued to lag other sectors compared to 2022.