According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, U.S. holiday season sales are estimated to grow 3.5 percent to 4.6 percent between November and January, slowing from the 7.6 percent increase tallied in 2022. The moderating growth is said to reflect less inflation but also weaker consumer spending.
According to Deloitte, sales across physical stores and online channels between November and January 2023 will range from $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion.
Deloitte also forecasted that e-commerce sales would grow between 10.3 percent to 12.8 percent, year-over-year, during the 2023/24 holiday season; this could see e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $278 billion and $284 billion this season.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season.”
“Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader. “This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets. Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
