The National Retail Federation (NRF) has reported that data released by the U.S. Census Bureau showed modest month-over-month retail sales growth in February amid consumer worries over inflation and Washington policy decisions, according to comments by the NRF’s Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“Lower-than-expected consumer spending in the first couple of months of the year likely reflected payback for very strong spending in the fourth quarter and weather-related events since then,” Kleinhenz said. “Moreover, these results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies. Regardless of the softer spending, consumer fundamentals remain healthy and intact so far, supported by low unemployment, steady income growth and other household finances. American shoppers will likely continue to spend as long as unemployment remains low and job growth continues.”

The Census Bureau reported overall retail sales in February were up 0.2 percent seasonally-adjusted month-over-month (m/m) and up 3.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y). That compared with a decrease of 1.2 percent m/m and an increase of 3.9 percent y/y in January.

February’s core retail sales, as defined by the NRF, based on the Census data but excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, were up 0.9 percent seasonally-adjusted m/m but down 0.2 percent unadjusted y/y because of the comparison against unusually high sales in February 2024. Core sales were down 1.2 percent y/y on a three-month moving average, also skewed by last February.

The results come after core retail sales grew 4.2 percent y/y during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6 percent for the full year.

The U.S. Census Bureau report follows the NRF’s CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report released last week in which it projected that total retail sales, excluding autos and gas, were down 0.22 percent seasonally-adjusted m/m but up 3.4 percent unadjusted y/y in February. That compared with a decrease of 1.1 percent m/m and an increase of 5.4 percent y/y in January.

The CNBC/NRF report found that Core Retail Sales, excluding restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations, were also down 0.22 percent m/m in February but up 4.1 percent y/y. That compared with a decrease of 1.3 percent m/m and an increase of 5.7 percent y/y in January.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports using actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions to tabulate the report results, which it needs not to revise monthly or annually.

Go here to view the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for February 2025.

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Sees February Y/Y Retail Sales Growing But Moderating