Circana is suggesting that U.S. consumers demonstrated their uncertainty through weekly ups and downs in discretionary retail spending in February, even as the overall results depicted stability.

In the combined four weeks ending March 1, 2025, overall retail sales demand was flat compared to the comparative period  in 2024, with 1 percent dollar growth, according to data from Circana.

“While the steady appearance of retail performance carried through top-line views of discretionary general merchandise, retail food and beverage, and non-edible consumer packaged goods (CPG), underlying disruptions are emerging,” the company said in a media statement.

“The paralyzing effects of economic uncertainty are starting to show up in short-term interruptions in discretionary consumer spending,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor, Circana. “On top of the existing concerns around inflation and the cost of goods, consumers are being inundated by headwinds that are creating pockets of behavior changes that have yet to impact the big picture.”

Circana said that, beyond the weekly fluctuations in discretionary spending that occurred in February, retail spending changes are developing among specific consumer groups.

Circana’s recent Five in 2025 retail and consumer predictions identified the uncertainty that may be felt among U.S. Hispanic consumers this year as having the potential to create significant changes in their retail activity, but these shifts are also seen in other demographic groups:

  • U.S. Hispanic consumer spending declined at a greater rate than that of the rest of the consumer population in January.
  • Consumers with a household income of less than $50,000 are the ones feeling the effects of elevated prices the most, and that discomfort was reflected in a 12 percent decline in January spending.
  • Similar changes are reportedly occurring in rural parts of the country and will have an impact across both discretionary and non-discretionary retail.
  • Spending is also slowing among consumers aged 55 and up, as well as among those in upper income brackets, who have been critical to bolstering retail spending for the past few years.

The spending shifts among these groups will create fragility in discretionary spending first, with effects that will ultimately be felt across all of retail.

“The long list of change factors currently at play, from inflation and tariffs to weather and politics, are creating the potential for a perfect storm at retail, and the consumer is at the center of it all,” added Cohen. “In order to weather this storm, every retailer and manufacturer must remain aware of the activity both inside and outside their product and consumer sweet spots, and be prepared to make adjustments that will both calm and compel the consumer.”