The U.S. Census Bureau reported overall retail sales in March were down 1 percent from February but up 2.9 percent year-over-year. In February, sales were down 0.2 percent month over month but up 5.9 percent year-over-year. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) stated that its calculation of retail sales, which focuses on core retail and excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, showed March was down 0.5 percent from February but up 4.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year. In February, sales were up 0.5 percent month over month and up 6.7 percent year-over-year. The NRF’s numbers were up 6 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average as of March.

“Retail sales moderated in March after posting strong gains in the first two months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Continued easing of inflation and the overall strength of the job market and wages are keeping the fundamentals of the consumer economy strong and should support their ability to spend on household priorities through 2023. Retailers recognize the pressure on consumers from increased prices in services and experiences, the impact of higher interest rates, prioritizing product mix, competitive pricing, and convenience to help consumers stretch their budgets.”

“March spending reversed the strong pace of core retail sales we saw earlier this year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “These results reflect both slower economic activity and lower prices because of easing inflation, which means fewer dollars spent even if consumers buy the same number of goods, but there is still a lot of spending in the economy. Keep in mind that households tend to shop less during the post-holiday season. In addition, tax refunds typically contribute to spending at this time of year but are smaller this year than last. Nonetheless, we are still looking at positive sales growth moving forward in 2023.”

The results come as the NRF forecasted that 2023 retail sales would grow between 4 percent and 6 percent over 2022.

March sales were up in five of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores and grocery stores, but fell in all but three categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

  • Online and other non-store sales were up 1.9 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 12.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Health and personal care stores were up 0.3 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 7.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.1 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 5.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Sporting goods stores were up 0.2 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 3.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • General merchandise stores were down 3 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 2.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.2 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 1.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 1.7 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 2.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Building materials and garden supply stores were down 2.1 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 4.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year; and
  • Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.1 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 9.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Photo courtesy Athleta