Gracenote, a leading provider of entertainment data and subsidiary of Tribune Media Company, refreshed its medal count predictions for the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro based on new developments which will affect the competition.

Through its Virtual Medal Table, Gracenote names potential winners and losers of the 2016 Rio Olympics based on analysis of the most up-to-date team and athlete data, as well as recent rulings and news affecting the Games.

The International Association of Athletics Federations (I.A.A.F.) ruled on June 17 to ban the Russian Athletics (Track and Field) team from the upcoming Rio Olympics due to the illegal use of performance enhancing drugs. However, a more recent ruling enables individual Russian athletes who can prove they are “clean” to apply for permission to compete in Rio as neutral, independent athletes. According to Gracenote’s predictions, these rulings taken together will cause Russia to win six fewer medals overall.

If the Games were held today and Russia’s athletes did not take part, Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table predicts the following:

  • U.S.A. would be the top medal winner with a combined 92 medals (41 gold, 23 silver and 28 bronze).
  • China would stay in second place with a combined 82 medals (31 gold, 26 silver and 25 bronze).
  • Russia would stay in third with a combined 57 medals, (20 gold, 19 silver and 18 bronze), despite the ban on numerous competitors from its Athletics team.
  • Great Britain would be up by two medals to 51 total medals, (18 gold, 16 silver and 17 bronze).

“To understand the impact of the I.A.A.F. ruling banning Russia’s Athletics team from the Summer Games on the overall medal count, Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table is the perfect predictive tool,” said Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports. “Our predictions for the 2016 Rio Games take into account not only recent results in key events but also factors like the absence of important competitors.”

Other countries are predicted to see improvements from previous Olympic Games. According to Gracenote’s current Virtual Medal Table:

  • Host country Brazil will enjoy a record medal haul with 20 medals, (8 gold, 9 silver and 3 bronze), in the Rio Games.
  • Japan is projected to challenge its best Olympic performance by winning 38 medals, (14 gold, 10 silver and 14 bronze). This will be the third time in four Summer Olympics that the Japanese will win at least 35 medals.
  • Korea Republic is predicted to win 25 medals, (10 gold, 5 silver and 10 bronze), bringing the nation’s total medal count to 231 medals since hosting the 1988 Seoul Olympics. Korea Republic is the second most successful Olympic nation in Asia during this period behind China.
  • New Zealand is expected to win a new record of 25 medals, (7 gold, 11 silver and 7 bronze), a 92 percent improvement since the 2012 London Games.
  • Australia is predicted to win 42 medals, (16 gold, 13 silver and 13 bronze), compared to 35 overall medals in London.
  • Netherlands is expected to set a new record by winning 26 medals, (7 gold, 9 silver and 10 bronze), and surpassing the 25 combined medals won in Sydney 2000.
  • France will see its best medal count since the 1900 Paris Olympics with 47 medals, (12 gold, 17 silver and 18 bronze). France’s 12 gold medals, an increase of one over its London 2012 haul, will be the most the country has won since Sydney 2000.
  • Germany is predicted to win 50 medals, (16 gold, 16 silver and 18 bronze), the nation’s best performance since the 2000 Sydney Olympics.

Additionally, Gracenote’s analysis found that women’s events in Rio will account for an all-time high of 44 percent of total medals. Men’s events will account for 53 percent of medals; while mixed and open events will account for the remaining 3 percent of medals.