As evidenced in this week’s fiscal Q2 financial report and season-to-date skier visits report from Vail Resorts, season passes, snowfall, and rates will all have a significant impact on mountain resort bookings, but a new report from Inntopia’s Destimetric unit raises the possibility, and likelihood, that fluctuations in economic policies and politics — mainly tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st U.S. state could be playing a role in the declines posted for both booking pace and winter season occupancy during February.
“While the second half of the six-month season from February through April is looking somewhat better than the first half of the season and is currently comparable to last season, bookings and occupancy softened from where they were last month even as aggregated daily rates inched up, driven primarily by increases in the luxury-priced category of rooms at $851/night or more,” the latest Market Briefing observed.
On Vail Resorts’ recent report, CEO Kirsten Lynch said destination guest visitation at its Western North American destination Mountain Resorts was below prior-year levels. She said the company believes it was driven by the continued shift in historical visitation patterns across the ski industry to later in the ski season, which increased after challenging early season conditions in the prior year.
Vail Resorts reported that local guest visitation aligned with expectations as conditions across Vail’s North American resorts improved from the prior year and returned to more typical conditions.
For the Destimetrics report, which has ~28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho contributing to the data pool, occupancy and rates were both up in February.
After a dip in occupancy in January, the report indicated that good snowfall in many regions changed the dynamic during February, and occupancy for the month was up 3.4 percent year-over-year compared to February 2024.
“Snow also helped tick up the Average Daily Rate (ADR) which gained a modest 1.6 percent for an average rate of $727/night aggregated across all property types,” the report noted. “The growth in both occupancy and rate delivered a five percent gain in revenue for the month compared to last February.”
Still, despite the boost from good snow, the pace of bookings made during February for all arrival dates dipped for the third consecutive month—a slight 1.2 percent year-over-year decline in bookings for arrivals in February through July.
Full Winter Still Holding
Destimetrics said occupancy for the full winter season from November through April, including actual and on-the-books reservations for the remainder of the season, are currently eking out a 0.3 percent seasonal gain over last season at this same time, with the back half of the season accounting for the modest growth.
Room rates are reported to be slightly stronger, up a slight 1.8 percent for an aggregated $640/night and up in five of the six winter months, with the most notable increases appearing in April (+5.5 percent) and January (+3.7 percent).
The Destimetrics report said the combination of higher rates and occupancy is delivering a two percent increase in seasonal revenues.
“Although this season is managing to hold a bit ahead of last year, we once again saw the gains in occupancy soften from last month — just as they softened in January from December,” noted Tom Foley, SVP of Business Intelligence, Inntopia. “But decent snowfall in February in the Central Rockies and other regions provided an offsetting boost to room rates, and in ‘travel math,’ that means revenue was essentially unchanged. Plus, economic news and policies are putting consumers a bit off balance as markets — and consumer confidence — downshifted.”
Influences to Watch
The report said snowfall and winter storms have been uneven this season, with on-again and off-again patterns across most of the West, with occasional big storms followed by dry spells and warm temperatures.
“Conditions have ranged from fair to excellent and everything in between, but it takes those really big snow events to trigger emotional and short-lead bookings, and warmer weather in urban feeder markets has also been an issue,” observed Foley.
The impact of tariffs and a U.S. trade war with Canada is becoming apparent as Canadians may have changed their travel plans in a protest response to the implementation of the tariffs and threats of annexation, as well as the resulting economics of a significant drop in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar.
While Inntopia said its internal data analysis is preliminary, early data revealed a precipitous drop in the ratio between bookings and cancellations when tariff deadlines were first announced. That drop carried through much of February before normalizing at the end of the month, and the findings correlate closely to Statistics Canada’s data on Canadian cross-border travel declines.
“This is compelling, but this is a new data set that we don’t fully understand yet and our analysis isn’t conclusive,” cautioned Foley. “Data from Statistics Canada that includes cross-border traffic showed clear signs of declining travel from Canada to the U.S. by car — down a sharp 17.4 percent in January and an even more dramatic 23 percent in February.
“Our own internal data suggests similar patterns over similar dates, but we will have to monitor the situation over time before we can be more definitive about the impact of trade wars, specifically on mountain travel,” Foley continued.”
Booking Pace declined for the third consecutive month in February — down 1.2 percent compared to last February following an 11.3 percent drop in January. The report acknowledges that uneven snowfall and economic uncertainty are the primary culprits for the struggling pace.
The data shows daily rates edged down slightly in absolute terms during February, slipping from $645/night in January to $640/night in February, but, in a year-over-year comparison, are currently up 1.8 percent for the winter season.
The report said lodging terciles are all posting seasonal gains as of February 28, but only luxury properties at $851+/night managed to improve their position during February, with revenue gains at those properties strengthening to a seasonal 5.3 percent uptick over last year. Economy (up to $400/night) and Moderate rooms ($401/night to $850/night) both declined in revenue during the month but reportedly remained up modestly for the season, gaining 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
“The Luxury segment has dominated the lodging landscape this season, providing the backbone for the modest aggregated seasonal gains and largely reflects the economically insulated luxury traveler less impacted by economic volatility or uncertainty,” clarified Foley.
“There was no lack of drama for western mountain resorts during February as lodging properties grappled with sharp declines in consumer confidence, good but not great snow conditions, shrinking savings, and indications of a travel boycott from Canadians,” Foley explained. “The combination suppressed bookings during February, but despite the challenges, the month was solid, and overall season revenue remained remarkably stable while a late April Easter holiday offers the potential a strong finish for the season. Our task is now watching future bookings very closely for opportunities to attract visitors, assuming that some economic and consumer uncertainty is going to persist,” he concluded.
DestiMetrics, part of the Business Intelligence platform for Stowe-based Inntopia, tracks lodging performance in resort destinations. Each month, the forward-looking reservation data is compiled and aggregated with individualized results for each region and distributed monthly to subscribers at participating resorts.
Image courtesy Beaver Creek Resort/Vail Resorts, Inc.
