The mood on the floor of the Sands Convention Center-at least in the athletic footwear section — was a reflection of the mood of many retailers after a rather tough July sales period for sneakers that ended with a thud the last week of the month. Many exhibitors were found wondering where all the retailers were. Why werent they at the show? Where was the traffic? Perhaps they were in their stores waiting for the Back-to-School season to start.
It seems like Back-to-School, like Holiday, has gradually moved back a week every year for the last few years. The situation is increasingly exacerbated by a very hot summer across the U.S. (and Europe) this year that has kids thinking about flip-flops and shorts rather than sneakers and jeans. That reality, coupled with the all-important-teenage-consumers trend to wait and see what everyone is wearing on day one, and moms desire to wait for the tax-free holiday weekends that have proliferated around the U.S. in the last few years, has BTS looking more like a one weekend event for many.
As for the tax-free weekend phenomenon that retailers now see as a key driver for business in August, one has to wonder about what drives the consumer to put so much energy into the event. SEW spoke with one CEO from an athletic footwear company that wondered aloud about the logic behind a consumers excitement over a seven percent discount. “If a retailer ran a promotion at 7% off anything in the store, no one would show up,” he said. While the excitement over tax-free weekends looks to be a bit counter-intuitive, the change in the buying season is clearly logical at its foundation.
While the BTS and Holiday seasons may be highlighted by a one weekend event, the seasons also certainly continue to shift later into the retail year. How the market reacts to this shift will determine the health of the business over the next few years. If retailers continue efforts to anniversary July the year before, Wall Street will continue to be disappointed in the results.
Retailers no longer bring fall apparel in for a 6/25 delivery to set the stage for fall, they move deliveries later in the year when needed. So why do they expect that kids going back to school will abandon their summer uniform in favor of what may or may not be the trend in September?
Trends, and the attitudes of consumers that drive them, are a moving target, a living organism that must be assessed on an almost continuous basis or the retailer loses their edge. Retailers — and more often the analysts that watch their every move — must also shed their reliance on hitting the monthly anniversary number and focus more on the seasonal results. While it is still critical for everyone to assess weekly results to determine the right flow of product and quickly meet the needs of changing consumer habits, “hitting a month” is less critical these days.
This change in perspective will also change the way product is bought and inventory is flowed. If retailers insist on living in the old world of the BTS season that started in early- to mid-July, then they will continue to be disappointed in the results and invest in inventory that gathers dust and becomes less relevant as the actual consumer shopping season unfolds.
The aisles at the WSA show were also filled with questions of Whats Next? and Whats New? that appeared to have gone largely unanswered. No wonder theres angst in the market when the biggest story of the year is the Crocs phenomenon. This is not a shot at Crocs, quite the contrary. At least they have found a way to excite the consumer and stir the competition to action as Keen did the year before and Under Armour did this year with their cleated footwear launch. If the number of knock-offs and derivatives on the show floor are any indication of success, the Crocs team has clearly been successful.
While there wasnt a solid breakthrough product that caused a stir on the show floor, there were a number of key trends that did get play and they all addressed the aspect of lifestyle rather than specific key product.
The canvas story is an example of this as is the shift to skate silhouettes. Rugged or outdoor casual also continues to excite. This is a segment that should garner more attention as an alternative to the low-profile-euro-casual looks that are just about everywhere now.
Performance also continues to please and the running brands are all addressing the better price-points where the consumer has chosen to buy. There was certainly no shortage of new offerings at $90 and $125 to address the opportunity presented in the market for that product. New running product at $75 is also addressing the needs of the older baby boomer that walks for health, but wont be caught dead in a pair of walking shoes.
The conversation about lifestyle should be a central theme for how the industry moves forward. To be successful, retailers and brands have to recognize that the athletic footwear business is just a subset of the broader lifestyle business and consumers will shift their buying habits to meet their changing lifestyle habits. The brands and retailers that insist on only addressing one aspect of a consumers lifestyle limit their ability to fully exploit the opportunity to capture that consumers continued loyalty.
The running specialty market is a microcosm of this trend. More shops are moving beyond pure running and are actively addressing the broader needs of a loyal customer base they have built through focused, personal service. Many are now offering yoga product, casual footwear, and even travel products to service the other aspects of their high disposable income customer. While brands like Asics, Brooks, Saucony, and Mizuno are clearly the brands at the center of this retailers mix, other brands like prAna, Keen, and Chaco are more likely to find a new home in their shops.
The retailers and brands that recognize that they need to change and adapt to stay relevant and grow with their consumer will be successful. Those that do not become the victims of the cyclical nature of trends and fashion. Better to take your future in your own hands than leave it to the shifting whims of the market and a fickle consumer — and waiting at home for the season to start.
