Stifel’s 15th annual back-to-school 2022 athletic footwear survey found that Nike’s popularity continues to be “enduring,” led by retro styles. Vans, Puma, Converse, and Hey Dude also scored high in the survey.

To assess trends in the U.S., Stifel’s footwear analyst team, led by Jim Duffy, visited and called on 110 stores, including Dick’s, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs, and Hibbett Sports, to gather data on the popularity of athletic footwear styles across boys and girls.

A Nike style was referenced as most popular in 92 percent of store calls, improving from 87 percent in February 2022 and in line with prior-year levels. Nike styles occupied all Top 5 and seven of the Top 10 most popular styles.

“Retro trends continue to dominate, led by the gender-agnostic Air Force 1, Jordan Retro 1 and Nike Blazer silhouettes though contemporary styles such as Nike Air Max and VaporMax have gained traction,” Stifel’s report reads.

The report found that Nike’s broad appeal is supported by diversified offerings, including Air Max, VaporMa, and Blazer styles, and has gained “meaningful traction” versus the year-ago back-to-school period.

The rising popularity of Nike Court styles, however, signaled some trading down was happening for Nike for price-sensitive consumers in the current inflationary climate. Stifel said in the study, “We consider the Nike Court Vision and Nike Court Borough as look-a-like styles of the more expensive Air Force 1 and Jordan 1 platforms.”

Nike Court styles were referenced in 10 percent of checks (versus 8 percent in February 2022 and 5 percent in back-to-school 2021), primarily in Academy, Dick’s and Finish Line.

Stifel said conversations with in-store personnel also included heightened attention to “your budget” and price sensitivity versus past discussions focused more on sizes and availability. Stifel added, “Notably, however, consumers remain brand loyal, and the budget conscious appear willing to substitute within brand.”

Stifel also found that Nike continues to dominate at Foot Locker despite ongoing moves to limit allocations to the chain. Nike was referenced as the most popular brand in 98 percent of Foot Locker stores, increasing from 84 percent in February ’22 and in line with prior-year levels.

Foot Locker said at the start of the year that Nike allocation would decline to 55 percent to 60 percent of vendor purchases by the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 70 percent in 2021.

Among other brands, Adidas’ brand relevance continued to slide, primarily online. Stifel wrote, “Our online checks show that Adidas brand styles comprised an all-time low of 6 percent of Top 20 styles (versus 13 percent in February 2022 and 15 percent for back-to-school 2021) on Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs, and Hibbett Sports websites.”

The popularity of Adidas’ top platforms has yet to recover in stores. The Ultraboost platform was mentioned in 15 percent of stores, unchanged versus February 2022 and down from 21 percent for back-to-school 2021. NMDs were noted in 11 percent of stores, up from 6 percent in February 2022 but below 12 percent in back-to-school 2021.

New Balance styles were discussed in 7 percent of calls, down from the brand’s peak of 11 percent in the prior year and February 2022. New Balance’s brand popularity was concentrated in Foot Locker stores.

Vans’ brand mentions as a popular brand improved to 13 percent of all stores checked, higher than 10 percent in February 2022 and 6 percent in back-to-school 2021.

Puma, boosted by the popularity of the LaMelo Ball collection, was mentioned in 5 percent of store checks, with all mentions in Foot Locker and Champs locations. Foot Locker has an exclusive on Puma’s LaMelo Ball style.

Converse held steady at an all-time high of brand mentions, cited as popular at 6 percent of stores, unchanged from February and well above the 2 percent mentions in the prior year. Again, Converse mentions were concentrated in Foot Locker.

Hey Dude, owned by Crocs, Inc., received its first brand mention at 4 percent of its checked stores and were concentrated in Academy Sports and Hibbett locations in North Carolina, Texas and Florida. Stifel wrote, “At a starting price of $59.95, Hey Dude may be an attractive option for the price-conscious consumer.”

Other findings from Stifel’s back-to-school study include:

  • Checks indicate improved in-store inventory availability and strong traffic, but anecdotal commentary suggested that store staffing is lean and, in many instances, lacks experience.
  • Effective on August 18, Stifel saw promotions become more widespread. “The best deals remained concentrated in seasonal apparel styles and footwear, but promotion expanded more broadly, including certain colorways of in-demand styles from leading brands. The inflection to a promotional environment is a departure from the full-price selling environment enjoyed during back to school in recent years,” said Stifel.
  • Stifel’s mix and ASP analysis suggest a net high-single-digit/low double-digit percent year-over-year increase in ASP for the brands though promotion may weigh on ASP for retailers. Stifel wrote, “For the brands, trade down to value price point offerings is more than offset by price increases of up to 22 percent y/y on the most popular styles.”

Photo courtesy Nike