It’s beginning to look a lot like Black Friday the day after Halloween.
While consumers have become accustomed to Christmas decorations in stores the first week in November, they’re also now seeing earlier holiday promotions and discounts, previously reserved for Black Friday.
Gone are the days when retailers could benefit from some full-price, pre-holiday transactions; the pressure is on to start offering deals weeks before Thanksgiving.
A majority (64 percent) of retailers plan to spread their 2015 holiday promotions throughout the holiday shopping season, as opposed to focusing on a specific day, compared to just 49 percent in 2014, according to the tenth annual BDO Retail Compass Survey of CMOs, which surveys 100 retail chief marketing officers at leading retailers throughout the country.
That isn’t to say Black Friday still isn’t a big deal – many of the respondents still plan for heavy promotional activity on or after Nov. 27 – but the day is certainly beginning to lose some of its luster.
Take outdoor retailer REI’s decision to close all its stores on Black Friday. While the move was judged as a marketing coup, the retailer likely also saw the trend of its sales spreading throughout the month. Indeed, REI is running one of its 20-percent-off member coupon sales with selected 30-percent-off discounts weeks before Black Friday (Nov. 13-23).
“I don’t think what brings people to REI is a crazy deal,” REI CEO Jerry
Stritzke told the Wall Street Journal. “The more specialty you become,
the more you’re looking to pull other levers than price one day of the
year.”
Black Friday can even be a turn-off to some consumers, pointed out Sportman's Warehouse President and CEO John Schaefer on the company's recent third-quarter conference call.
“You're losing a lot of customers on Black Friday because of the large crowds, so you want to try to get those customers earlier. So you're starting to do things earlier, and we are doing that as well.”
On the other side of Black Friday, some brick-and-mortar retailers have even said that Cyber Monday is turning into bigger day for sales.
The shift also is changing the way analysts look at holiday sales.
SportScanInfo (SSI Data), which provides weekly, up-to-date retail point-of-sale data for the outdoor, sporting goods and active lifestyle markets has expanded its 2015 Holiday Sales tracking period to now run from the first week on November to the last week in December. It previously tracked the week of Thanksgiving through the week of Christmas.
Many specialty retailers surveyed by SSI Data said they are doing the same, noting that not only does holiday shopping start earlier, but it goes later, too, as stores look to capitalize off gift-card and returns/exchange traffic the week following Christmas.
Warm Weather Drives Winners and Losers With Early Holiday Sales
Are early November holiday promotions making a difference at the sales register?
That’s tough to say as the weather ultimately plays the largest role in the industry. So far this year, there are some bright and dim results.
Through the first two weeks in November 2015, SSI Data shows apparel sales down industry-wide due in large part to high-single-digit percentage decreases in outerwear sales. This year’s El Nino weather pattern has so far meant warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country. Last week’s first significant snowfall in the Rocky Mountain West, plus more snow expected around Thanksgiving, might start to turn the trend around for that region. However, only brief winterlike weather is expected during the next two weeks for the Eastern states, which will otherwise continue with their warmer-than-normal trend.
The warmer weather has helped boost sales of activewear and sportswear – up by mid-single-digit percentages, through the first two weeks in November, according to SSI Data. Active sport tops sales are up by high-single digits for the period. In bottoms, fashion right tights and leggings as well as jogger style pants have continued to drive positive sales.
Footwear sales have not seen any measurable spike in business during the first two weeks of November, according to SSI Data, as sales have maintained their year long mid-single-digit increase sales trend.
Again, the weather is playing a role within the category – athletic footwear sales are up, thanks in part to the start of basketball season, with continued increases in fashion lifestyle shoes, particularly in classic, running and retro styles. After a strong 2014 and early 2015, the boot business is beginning to show signs of slowing with each passing warm week. Boot sales are down mid-single digits through the first two weeks in November, according to SSI Data, despite some bright spots in winter fashion boots, particularly from the Sorel brand. This might suggest that despite the warmer weather, consumers are still aiming for the most popular fall/winter looks.
SSI Data matches what many retailers are projecting in their fourth-quarter outlooks.
Dick’s Sporting Goods cut guidance as its same-store sales dipped on weather-related product. Outdoor specialty retailers at last week’s Grassroots Outdoor trade show were a little more upbeat, saying the good weather helped extend sales of summer goods through September, but for the same reason early fall apparel sales dragged. Although they noted that consumers were buying up some winter items that went out of stock early last season, including an earlier rush on winter boots.
SSI Data is owned by SportsOneSource Group, which also owns the B.O.S.S Report and Sports Executive Weekly.
–David Clucas
