U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in September on, up from the unrevised 0.1 percent gain in August, according to the Commerce Department. The performance was slightly ahead of a 0.3 percent Dow Jones forecast.
Excluding autos, sales accelerated 0.5 percent, better than the forecast for just a 0.1 percent rise. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2 percent on the month as measured by the consumer price index.
Sales in September were up 1.7 percent unadjusted year over year, compared with the CPI (consumer price index) rate of 2.4 percent for the same period. In August, sales grew 2.2 percent year over year.
Among key channels in the active lifestyle space, sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & bookstores were up 0.3 percent month-to-month, improving from a 0.1 percent gain seen in August. Year over year, sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & bookstores slid 3.5 percent.
At clothing & clothing accessories stores, which includes footwear stores, sales were up 1.5 percent month-to-month, improving from a 0.6 percent gain seen in August. Sales were up 3.5 percent year over year.
Other positive month-to-month growth was seen at miscellaneous store retailers, up 4.0 percent; grocery, 1.0 percent; and bars and restaurants, also 1 percent. Month-to-month declines were seen at gas stations, down 1.6 percent due to lower fuel prices. Declines were also seen at electronics and appliances stores, off 3.3 percent; and furniture and home furnishing businesses, 1.4 percent.
In a statement, economist Jack Kleinhenz said September’s performance bodes well for holiday spending.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” Kleinhenz said. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
September’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.4 percent unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.3 percent year over year for the first nine months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023. NRF earlier this week put out its forecast calling for 2024 holiday sales to also increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over the same time last year.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were down a slight 0.28 percent seasonally adjusted month over month in September but up 0.94 percent year over year. That compared with increases of 0.17 percent month over month and 1.93 percent year over year in August. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that gives more accurate results in real time that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.
