According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, retail sales nationwide increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent month-over-month in September, up from the unrevised 0.1 percent gain in August. The performance was slightly ahead of the 0.3 percent increase the Dow Jones forecasted.

Excluding autos, sales accelerated by 0.5 percent, better than the forecast of a 0.1 percent rise.

The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2 percent month-over-month (m/m) in September as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Sales in September were up 1.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y), compared with the CPI rate of 2.4 percent for the same period, an acceleration from the August 2024 trend when sales grew 2.2 percent year-over-year.

Among key channels in the active lifestyle space, sales at Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Bookstores were up 0.3 percent m/m, improving from a 0.1 percent m/m gain in August. Year-over-year, sales at Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Bookstores declined 3.5 percent.

At Clothing and Clothing Accessories stores, including Footwear stores, sales were up 1.5 percent m/m, improving seequentiallyfrom a 0.6 percent gain in August. Sales were up 3.5 percent year-over-year.

Other positive month-over-month growth was shown at Miscellaneous Store retailers, up 4.0 percent; grocery, 1.0 percent; and Bars and Restaurants, also up 1 percent.

Gas stations were down 1.6 percent m/m due to lower fuel prices, Electronics and Appliance stores were off 3.3 percent and Furniture and Home Furnishing retailers were down 1.4 percent.

Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, National Retail Federation (NRF) said in a media release that September’s performance bodes well for holiday spending. “While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value.”

Kleinhenz continued, “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”

September’s Core Retail sales, as defined by the NRF, and based on the census data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, excluding Auto Dealers, Gas Stations, and Restaurants, were up 0.7 percent m/m seasonally-adjusted  and up 2.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Core Retail sales were up 3.3 percent y/y for the first nine months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.

Earlier this week, the NRF reported its forecast for 2024 Holiday sales to also increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over the same time last year.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that core U.S. retail sales were down a slight 0.28 percent m/m seasonally-adjusted in September but up 0.94 percent year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.17 percent m/m and 1.93 percent y/y in August.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, NRF is quick to point out that the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, giving what they believe is more accurate real-time results that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.

Image courtesy L.L. Bean