Placer.ai reported that overall U.S. retail traffic in early 2025 shows modest growth so far this year, boding well for the upcoming back-to-school season. Traditional back-to-school categories, such as sportswear and footwear, are expected to remain strong.
Retail Traffic Up Slightly Compared to 2024
Placer.ai, which specializes in location intelligence and retail and restaurant foot traffic data analytics, stated in a report that, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, overall retail traffic this year has remained generally on par with 2024 levels. The research firm noted that between January and May 2025, retail visits were 0.4 percent higher than the comparative period in 2024, with increases of 2.3 percent and 1.3 percent in April and May 2025, respectively.
Placer.ai noted that some of the recent strength could be attributed to a pull-forward of consumer demand in response to potential price hikes and limited product availability; however, the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit increase in 2025 so far was actually in January, when visits were up 3.4 percent compared to January 2024, “highlighting the resilience of retail consumers in 2025 and boding well for the upcoming back to school season.”
Which Categories Will Replicate Their 2024 Back-to-School Success?
Placer.ai pointed out that last year, sportswear, athleisure, and footwear retailers experienced the largest increase in back-to-school visits, followed by office supplies and traditional apparel, excluding off-price, department stores, sportswear, and athleisure. These segments all saw slight visit increases in May and are likely to continue seeing sizable traffic spikes for the back-to-school season this year.
Still, the research firm said when examining the visit data from April and March 2025, it is revealed that the retail categories experiencing the strongest visit trends are those that receive a slightly smaller boost from back-to-school, including furniture and home furnishings, off-price retailers and thrift stores.
“Some of this strength may be attributed to the pull-forward of demand, as consumers may have purchased larger-ticket items, such as furniture, in anticipation of price hikes, or to shoppers’ value orientation, driving visits up for off-price and thrift stores. However, the recent success of these categories could suggest that home furnishings, off-price apparel and thrift stores may see higher volumes of consumer traffic this year compared to 2024.” the company wrote in its analysis.
Looking Ahead at Back to School 2025
Placer.ai concluded, “Ahead of the 2025 back-to-school season, retail traffic data paints the picture of a generally resilient consumer, despite the regional variability. And while last year’s big back-to-school winners will likely perform well again in 2025, more secondary back-to-school categories — including home furnishings, off-price, and thrift stores — may be the ones to come out on top this year.”
Image courtesy Auburn University
