The latest Executive Opinion Survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd. (BTM) indicates that retail executives have backed off of their enthusiastic outlook for demand at retail.

The Index, or RSPI, declined to 52.1% in November versus 57.9% in October. The latest RSPI was 880 basis points above the same period a year ago. The RSPI, which measures retail executives’ evaluations of a number of core retail performance metrics, is based on a scale of 0% – 100% with 50% equaling normal.

The Operations Index, which takes into account employment and inventory, came in at 50.0%, off 230 basis points from the 52.3% in October, but was 260 basis points higher than the November 2002 index.

The outlook on demand may have been tempered a bit by the weaker October numbers at retail. Each monthly survey is conducted prior to the close the month and may not reflect late month sales.

Retailers surveyed were a bit more pessimistic about traffic and sales in November, with the outlook on Average Transactions per Customer dipping 620 basis points from October. As a result, the Current Demand Index, which is the average of sales and traffic, to 53.1% compared to October’s 57.3%, but was 1100 basis points higher year-over-year.

The six-month look ahead Demand Outlook, at 53.1%, was at the lowest level since May 2003.

The NRF also pointed to the Pricing Index, which stayed flat at 28.1%, as an indicator that “retailers are pricing their goods to sell”.

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