NRF: November Retail Sales on Track to Hit Holiday Forecast

Following two strong months of retail sales, consumers headed to the stores again in November to take advantage of holiday promotions. According to the National Retail Federation, November retail sales in the GAFS category, which includes most general merchandise categories, rose 4.7% over last year and increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted over October. November sales are in line with NRF’s forecast of 4.5% growth in holiday sales.

“Consumers are still in the game, with many splurging on high-end merchandise,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “November sales are an indicator that the holiday season is off to a good start.”

November retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show that total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) rose 0.1% seasonally adjusted from October and increased 9.0% unadjusted year-over-year.

Several retail sectors in November saw strong growth. Electronics and appliances stores were big winners last month with sales up 5.6% over last year and 1.0% adjusted from October. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers also saw a robust November, with sales increasing 1.1% over October and a massive 19.6% over last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores, which dipped 0.1% adjusted from October, rose 4.7% over last year. General merchandise stores, including department stores, also saw increases of 4.6% over last year and 0.4% from October.

In spite of recent reports of mixed results in comp store sales, overall retail sales appear in line with NRF’s forecast. “Looking at the entire retail industry, holiday sales are meeting our expectations,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Comp store sales, which measure individual companies performances, clearly dont tell the story of the entire retail industry.”

NRF continues to forecast that holiday sales will increase 4.5% this year to $219.9 billion. NRF defines the holiday season as GAFS sales in the months of November and December.