Jarden Corp., the parent of K2, expects to report fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.3 billion and 2009 revenue of more than $5 billion. The Rye, N.Y.-based consumer-products company said it will not provide guidance below the revenue line, but believes that the recent improvement in raw-material commodity costs will benefit margins in the second half of 2009.
On average, analysts surveyed by Thompson Financial are looking for Jarden to post revenue of $1.46 billion in the fourth quarter and $5.36 billion in 2009.
In addition, the company believes that based on $5 billion in revenue, anticipated lower interest rates and lower working capital and capital expenditure needs in 2009 versus 2008, cash flow from operations less capital expenditures should exceed $250 million for fiscal 2009.
Martin E. Franklin, chairman and chief executive officer of Jarden Corporation, stated, “Jarden has historically provided multi-year financial goals, rather than short term financial guidance. However, given the exceptional macro-economic environment and the changes that have occurred within the market over the last several months, we recognize it has become increasingly difficult for investors and other interested parties to estimate the impact of the current volatility on our near term performance. As a result, we have decided to provide revenue guidance, based on our current analysis of the business, as well as indicative cash flow information as this is a key metric in how we manage the business.”
The company's guidance is based on three significant top-line trends. First, Jarden's business model of offering a diversified portfolio of market leading brands continues to win at retail. Jarden's broad product offering at value price points provides retailers with a mix of products that has generally outperformed category point-of-sale. Jarden has received 2009 orders for some significant new pieces of business in all three of its primary business segments.
Second, as noted earlier this year, the company anticipated most of the categories it serves would shrink during the year while increased revenue from Jarden's market share growth would exceed the reductions from shrinkage of the overall market. However, the decline in the categories has accelerated in the fourth quarter and the company now believes that the overall retail market declines in 2008 and 2009 will exceed Jarden's market share growth, resulting in lower sales.
Finally, the rapid revaluation of the U.S. dollar in the second half of the year means the company will experience a reduction in the reported sales from Jarden's international operations. Using the foreign exchange rates today compared to the average rates for 2008, the foreign exchange impact on annualized sales is estimated at a negative translation adjustment of approximately $150 million.
Franklin concluded, “While many consumer product companies and retailers are seeing significant double digit declines in revenue, we believe Jarden will continue to outperform the categories it serves. We believe our expected 2009 revenue base will allow us to continue making investments for long term growth, built around new products for our market leading brands. Once the macro environment starts to improve, the strength of our core businesses should be reflected in the reestablishment of top-line growth.”