Advance estimates of U.S. retail sales released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday appear to confirm reports that harsh weather across much of the country suppressed retail sales in January.
“Harsh winter weather is masking the performance of the broader economy,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Extreme temperatures and severe ice and snow are making it increasingly difficult to assess if the retail sales slowdown is temporary or a telling sign of a longer lasting weakness in the consumer-fueled economy. No one can jump to any solid conclusion until we shovel out of the snow.”
Census estimated sales by sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores reached $7.07 billion in January, or down 1.4 percent from December 2013 and down 2.1 percent from December 2013 on an adjusted basis.
By comparison, adjusted sales by department and other general merchandise stores declined -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent respectively. At clothing and clothing accessories stores, adjusted sales declined 0.9 percent from December and were up 1.2 percent from January 2013. Adjusted sales by online, catalog and other non-store retailers declined 0.6 percent from December and were up 6.5 percent from January 2013.
NRF interpolated that January retail sales, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, were flat seasonally adjusted month-to-month yet increased 3.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
Census also revised its estimate of the change in adjusted sales by sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores for December to a decline of 0.9 percent from November and an increase of 3.8 percent from December, 2012.
Advance estimates provide the government’s first estimate of monthly U.S. retail sales. They are based on a survey of just 5,000 retail and food services firms and will be revised twice in coming months as more data becomes available. So-called “adjusted estimates” seek to exclude the impact of changes in the selling calendar from one month, quarter or year to the next, but do not adjust for changes in prices.
