Stifel’s 17th Annual Back-To-School Athletic Footwear Survey found consumers embracing newness across various trends and increasing the popularity of challenger brands. Stifel said the findings are “one of the most fresh, colorful and exciting back-to-school (BTS) product lineups at multi-branded retail in years.” It also noted the fading popularity of Nike’s retro court styles—Air Force 1, Jordan 1 and Blazer—which have been the foundation of Nike’s dominance in the market.

Instead, survey respondents reportedly reflected the increasing popularity of comfort-oriented “Dad shoes” (New Balance, Asics and Nike Vomero 5) and the strong adoption of terrace (SportStyle) styles, including Adidas Samba, Gazelle and Campus. The survey results also found that popularity slipped for Nike’s Jordan brand and higher-priced contemporary Nike brand styles, including the Air Max 270 and VaporMax.

“Survey results suggest, with the exception of the Vomero 5, mainstream consumers are not yet responding to Nike’s other attempts at newness,” the firm wrote in its report. The results of the 2024 survey were so telling that Stifel and Managing Director Jim Duffy cut estimates and the target price for NKE shares over the weekend.

“Stifel’s 2024 Back to School Athletic Footwear Survey suggests broad-based competitive pressures in the U.S. market,” Stifel wrote in its note on the Nike action. “Given footwear share loss, rapidly waning relevance of core franchises and lacking indicators that newness is resonating in the marketplace, we see risk to both prevailing guidance for –MSD FY25 revenue and prevailing market expectations for inflection to revenue growth in FY4Q. We are proactively cutting estimates for FY25 and FY26 footwear revenue and earnings power. Without tangible evidence, Nike can reverse footwear share loss, and we expect the focus on risks to dominate the narrative.”

Stifel said its revised $79 target price represents 24x FY 2026 EPS of $3.30, compared to its prior 25x FY 2026 EPS of $3.50.

Methodology
To assess trends in the U.S., Stifel’s footwear analyst team, led by Duffy, annually visits and calls 110 stores each spring, around the time of the NBA All-Star (AS) game and BTS, to gather data on the popularity of athletic footwear styles across boys and girls. Stores surveyed include Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoor, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs, and Hibbett Sports.

Brand Takeaways

Nike dominance fades year-over-year (y/y) as New Balance and Adidas gain heat. A Nike shoe, including Jordan, was referenced as most popular in 61 percent of checks, down 27 percentage points (ppts) y/y from BTS 2023 and 31 ppts from the BTS 2022 report. Stifel said it was the lowest-ever most-popular reference share for Nike. The prior low was next at 67 percent in 2018. The report noted that Nike’s most popular share loss was greater among women (-29 ppts y/y) than among men (-24 ppts y/y).

Nike Dunks overtake the Jordan brand as the No.1 most frequently mentioned style. Stifel said that Nike Dunks assumed the top style position in the survey results and were mentioned in 52 percent of stores. They posted the largest improvement of any Nike style versus the BTS 2023 report (+22 ppts y/y) and a solid +7 ppt increase from the AS ’24 checks in February.

“Black and White ‘pandas’ are still the most sought-after colorway, though references of other color variations increased meaningfully as many employees spoke to various colorway options and sizes available in-store,” Stifel wrote. The report authors also noted they are seeing diminished premiums for Dunks in aftermarket channels, such as StockX.

Jordan brand popularity declined meaningfully from all-time highs.This is one of the most telling trends, as the company recorded all-time highs in its most recent February 2024 All-Star checks. Jordan brand styles were mentioned in 34 percent of checks for BTS 2024, declining from 53 percent in AS 2024 and 46 percent in the prior-year BTS report.

“We note that from 2016 to 2019, the Jordan brand was mentioned [by] just 25 percent [of stores] on average during our back-to-school checks, suggesting the brand’s popularity is still well above pre-pandemic levels,” Stifel said. “Conversations with store employees suggest Retro 4s were the most in-demand, certain Retro 1s were still in style, though aftermarket premiums are fading, and sometimes trading below retail, but other new offerings, i.e., Retro Olympics 6 and Spizike, generally seemed to be readily available in stores suggestive of underwhelming sell-through.”

Nike Air Force 1 reference is well off recent peaks. The AF1 was mentioned in 39 percent of checks for BTS 2024, falling from 62 percent in the 2923 BTS report, an all-time high for any style, and 46 percent in our All-Star 2024 checks.

“Conversations with employees indicated that the style remains a safe recommendation, especially for students who have to adhere to certain dress codes, but is no longer a top choice for customers,” Stifel wrote in its report. “Conversations with store employees suggest stores are fully stocked with AF1 sizes and styles, and, in some cases, stock is at higher-than-desirable levels.”

Competitive vitality and selection bring energy to the category. In Stifel’s 2024 BTS report, the most popular references are spread across brands and styles. New Balance’s most popular references were 15.5 percent, up 8 ppts y/y—the highest level for the brand. Adidas saw its most popular references at 13.6 percent in the 2024 report, well below the brand’s past peak of 30 percent in 2017 but up 13 ppts y/y.

“Popularity is not only spanning brands but also product types and price points presenting consumers with a cornucopia of on-trend choices,” the firm wrote in its report.

New Balance brand momentum is becoming more broad-based. New Balance was mentioned as the most popular brand at 15.5 percent of checked stores (+7.8 ppts y/y) and registered year-to-year gains at all retailers.

“The brand’s popularity can be attributed to the rise of multiple styles, including the 9060 ($150), 2002 ($145) and 1906 ($155) styles, but has also been supported by 530 ($100), 574 ($90) and others,” Stifel noted.

Adidas Terrace styles are replacing court shoe styles for lifestyle wear. Stifel said this was the case particularly with women, led by the popularity of Terrace (SportStyle) styles, an Adidas shoe was reportedly referenced as the most popular style in 13.6 percent of store checks in the 2024 BTS report, an increase of 13.1 ppts year-over-year.

“Popularity of the Adidas Samba exploded year to year, referenced in 39 percent, up from 4 percent in back to school 2023,” Stifel said. “Led by demand from women, other Adidas Terrace styles also saw strong gains, including the Campus, mentioned in 16 percent of checks versus no mentions in BTS 2023, and the Gazelle, mentioned in 8 percent of checks versus no mentions in BTS 2023.”

Asics is participating in “Dad shoe” trend. Stifel said that Asic’s popularity with young consumers is new to the 2024 survey, with mentions as the most popular brand in certain stores.

Employees frequently mentioned the Asics GEL styles, namely the GEL-1130 ($100) and GEL-NYC ($130) as popular in the “Dad shoe” category.

The Hoka and On brand gains were reportedly modest. Stifel expected this result as the lifestyle business dominates with younger BTS shoppers in mall-based channels. On was mentioned in 8 percent of stores compared to 5 percent in AS 2024 and 3 percent in BTS 2023.

Stifel said that mentions were primarily concentrated at Dick’s Sporting Goods, with 36 percent of Dick’s stores compared to 20 percent in AS 2024 and 12 percent in BTS 2023. The Hoka brand was mentioned in 6 percent of checked stores compared to 4 percent in AS 2024 and 5 percent in BTS 2023. Stifel said the Hoka references were also entirely concentrated at Dick’s Sporting Goods.

Vans “knu-ness” showing traction during BTS. Vans Knu School was referenced as the most popular style, with 2.7 percent of stores concentrated in the heritage California market.

“Notably, the Knu Skool has even been showing up on the front pages of StockX’s most popular sneakers (priced on par with retail), Stifel wrote.

Brick & Mortar
Conversations with store employees suggested more buoyant store traffic this year. Compelling selection and newness drive consumer engagement and encourage consumers to shop multi-branded retail to compare offerings.

Inventories
Checks indicate healthy inventories, strong selection, and consumer energy that supports a full-price selling environment. Category energy was said to be evident in both consumer engagement and the full-price selling environment.” Following pandemic-related supply chain disruption and related inventory imbalances, we are encouraged to see healthy channel inventories and a benign promotional environment,” Duffy’s team wrote.

Key Observations
Stifel said that unit demand was healthy and selling at full price, but consumer price sensitivity is reflected in the mix. The Stifel team suggested that a breath of on-trend selection spans price points, offering consumers options to work within their budget. Women are gravitating toward terrace styles, weighing on the year-over-year ASP mix.

Stifel said that popularity and ASP mix suggest a low-single-digit decline year-over-year.

The company also said survey responses revealed expanding multi-brand relevance and an increasingly competitive environment.

“Consumer preferences are shifting from neutral-colored court styles towards color, terrace styles, and comfort-oriented chunky dad shoes,“ the Stifel team wrote. “Nike’s over-reliance on retro court styles and broadening trends have opened up the door for challenger brands who have responded with one of the most fresh and exciting product lineups at multi-branded retail that we have seen in years.

Image courtesy Dick’s Sporting Goods