Piper Sandler’s latest teen survey found Nike, Lululemon, Converse and Crocs all remained highly popular with teens but each showed signs of losing mindshare. Winners gaining teen’s attention included Adidas, Hoka, On, New Balance and Ugg.

Broadly across categories, Piper’s 48th semi-annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey for Fall 2024 found apparel mindshare among upper-income teens (who tend to be the early adopters of fashion) improved by one point y/y (year over year), with increases at both male and female teens, according to analysis by Anna Andreeva, Piper’s lead analyst in the footwear and apparel space. Footwear share declined by one point, driven primarily by males.

Among brands, Nike continued to dominate as the favorite footwear and apparel brand for all teens but continued to lose ground as shown in recent past surveys. Nike’s mindshare in footwear declined four points to 57 percent from 61 percent a year and gave back two points versus 59 percent in the Spring 2024 survey. Nike’s mindshare loss in footwear was particularly evident among females (down eight points, to 48 percent this Fall vs. 56 percent last year and 53 percent this Spring), with the upper income cohort seeing an 11-point y/y decline (to 45 percent this Fall vs. 56 percent last year and 51 percent this Spring). Male mindshare in footwear comparatively dipped slightly (63 percent this Fall vs. 67 percent last Fall and 65 percent this Spring). In footwear, Nike’s share losses were seen coming from New Balance, Adidas and Birkenstock. In apparel, Nike is seeing a lesser share decline at 33 percent this Fall (for all teens) vs. 35 percent last Fall and 34 percent this Spring.

Adidas had the biggest increase in mindshare among upper-income females (to 14 percent this Fall from 3 percent in Fall 2023), with the improvement attributed to the popularity of franchises like Samba and Gazelle. Among upper-income males, Adidas’ mindshare slid to 10 percent from 11 percent in Fall 2023. Adidas’ mindshare in footwear among upper-income teens across both genders increased to 12 percent from 7 percent. Across all teens, Adidas’s mindshare in footwear increased to 9 percent from 7 percent, moving the brand past Converse to rank as the second most popular footwear brand among teens behind Nike. In apparel, Adidas ranked as the number 9th preferred brand across all teens with a 2 percent share, down compared to the eighth most popular in Fall 2023, at a 3 percent mindshare.

Among upper-income teens, New Balance increased its rank to the third favorite brand, with an 8 percent mindshare, up from four with a 4 percent mindshare a year ago. Gains were seen among upper-income teens in both males (9 percent mindshare in Fall 2024 against 6 percent in Fall 2023) and females (8 percent mindshare versus 3 percent in Fall 2023.) Across all teens surveyed, New Balance remained the fourth most preferred brand, but its mindshare improved to 7 percent from 3 percent.

Among upper-income teens, Converse rank as the preferred footwear brand slid to four with a 5 percent mindshare from two, at a 10 percent mindshare, in Fall 2023. The decline reflected a loss in mindshare among upper-income females, to 7 percent from 9 percent in Fall 2023.

Among all teens, Vans, owned by VF Corp., slipped to sixth favorite brand, with a   2 percent mindshare, down from five, with a 3 percent mindshare, a year ago. Vans lost ground slightly with both genders.

Among other footwear brands, Crocs maintained its 2 percent mindshare in footwear both y/y and sequentially but saw its preference rank decline to the eighth spot vs. six last year and seven this Spring. Andreeva wrote, “Among upper-income males, it is encouraging that the brand maintained its No. 5 spot y/y, while moving up from the No. 10 spot in the Spring (potentially speaking to the seasonality of the assortment).”

Among all teens, Heydude, a sister brand of Crocs, moved down three spots y/y (to ten this Fall vs. seven last Fall) and down two spots sequentially (from eight this Spring) albeit the brand still maintained its 1 percent mindshare.

 Ugg, owned by Deckers Brands, moved up to No. 5 rank among favorite footwear brands across all teens surveyed (up one point sequentially and six-points y/y), driven primarily by females who grew mindshare to 5 percent (vs. 1 percent last Fall) among their cohort. Among upper-income females, Ugg ranked five for Fall 2024 (down one rank sequentially and in line y/y), with mindshare notably improving (7 percent vs. 2 percent y/y).

Hoka also owned by Deckers Brands, claimed a spot on the top-ten list of favorite footwear among upper-income teens for the first time, landing at nine with a 1 percent mindshare, led by interest by females. Among upper-income females, Hoka maintained its eighth rank (up three spots y/y) and increased mindshare by one point. Among preferred athletic footwear brands for upper-income teens, Hoka fell to four (down one rank sequentially and y/y), but mindshare increased to 6 percent (up 2 percent y/y). Among upper-income females, Hoka maintained its number two rank among preferred athletic footwear brands and saw a 3 percent y/y increase in mindshare (total of 10 percent). For upper-income males, Hoka ranked third (up five spots sequentially). Andreeva wrote in her analysis, “These metrics tie well with the company’s recent commentary regarding the brand gaining momentum with the 18–35-year-old age demo.”

On Running came in as the seventh favorite footwear brand among all teens, vs. ninth this past Spring and eighth last Fall. Among females, the brand reached the seventh spot, up from eighth this Spring and last Fall. With male teens, On jumped two ranks sequentially to eighth vs. not being on the list at all last Fall. Among upper-income females, On moved up to third favorite athletic footwear brand (up one spot sequentially, 2 percent gain in mindshare), while among upper-income male teens, the brand moved up to fifth favorite athletic footwear brand, up from eighth last Fall. Andreeva wrote in her analysis, “This data is consistent with our view that ONON is gaining share with the younger demo, which is also being aided by the partnership with Zendaya (this summer’s air tennis match with Roger Federer had over 15M Instagram and 7M TikTok views).”

For upper-income teens, Asics moved up to tenth spot among preferred footwear with 1 percent mindshare (vs. not being on the top ten list last year or this Spring),

Among apparel brands for all teens, Lululemon maintained its rank at three, with 5 percent mindshare, flat sequentially but down one point vs. last Fall. Among females, Lululemon‘s mindshare declined by three points y/y and by one point sequentially. Among males, Lululemon moved up one rank both sequentially and y/y to the fifth preferred apparel brand, maintaining its 2 percent mindshare. Among upper-income teens, Lululemon remained the second most preferred apparel brand behind Nike with with a 6 percent mindshare to Nike’s 30 percent. However, its preference mindshare upper-income teens was down from 10 percent in Fall 2023 with female mindshare tumbling to 8 percent from 17 percent. Lululemon was seen losing share to Brandy Melville, Hollister and Shein.

When asked about preferences on Lululemon vs. others, 35 percent of respondents still wear the same amount of Lululemon as last year (53 percent stated they do not wear the brand), while 10 percent wear less (with some shifting the spend to Alo Yoga).

Other findings in the Fall 2024 survey:

  •  Preferred athletic footwear brands (upper-income all teens): Nike, 68 percent; Adidas, 9 percent; New Balance, 6 percent; Hoka, 6 percent; On, 5 percent; Brooks, 2 percent; Asics, 2 percent; Under Armour, 1 percent; Lululemon, 1 percent; Puma, 1 percent.
  • Preferred athletic footwear brand (upper-income male teens): Nike, 71 percent; Adidas, 11 percent; Hoka, 6 percent; New Balance, 3 percent; On, 3 percent; Brooks, 2 percent; Asics, 2 percent; Under Armour, 1 percent; Lululemon, 1 percent; Dicks Sporting Goods, 1 percent.
  •  Preferred athletic footwear brand (upper-income female teens): Nike, 63 percent; Hoka, 10 percent; On, 7 percent; New Balance, 6 percent; Adidas, 5 percent; Asics, 2 percent; Brooks, 2 percent; Lululemon, 2 percent; Converse, 1 percent; Skechers, 1 percent.
  • Preferred apparel brands (upper-income all teens): Nike, 30 percent; Lululemon, 6 percent; American Eagle, 6 percent; Brandy Melville, 5 percent; Hollister, 5 percent; PacSun, 4 percent; H&M, 3 percent; Adidas, 2 percent; Garage, 2 percent; Shein, 2 percent.
  • Preferred apparel brands (upper-income male teens): Nike, 49 percent; 2 Adidas, 4 percent; 3 Lululemon, 3 percent; Hollister, 3 percent; PacSun, 3 percent; H&M, 2 percent; Under Armour, 2 percent; Abercrombie & Fitch, 1 percent; American Eagle, 1 percent; Uniqlo, 1 percent.
  • Preferred apparel brands (upper-income female teens): Brandy Melville, 9 percent; American Eagle, 9 percent; Lululemon, 8 percent; Nike, 6 percent; Hollister, 6 percent; PacSun, 4 percent; Garage, 4 percent; Shein, 3 percent; H&M, 3 percent; Aritzia, 2 percent.
  • Top fashion trends right now (upper-income male teens): Athletic Wear, 19 percent; Fragrance, 14 percent; Streetwear, 13 percent; Nike/Jordans, 13 percent; Hoodies, 11 percent; Baggy/Saggy Pants, 11 percent; Hair Trends, 6 percent; Short Shorts, 4 percent; Crocs, 2 percent; Leggings/Lululemon, 2 percent.
  • Top fashion trends right now (upper-income female teens): Leggings/Lululemon, 26 percent; Stanley Cups, 19 percent; Crop Tops, 10 percent; Ugg, 9 percent; Hoodies 7 percent; Baggy/Saggy Pants, 6 percent; Athletic Wear, 5 percent; White Fox Boutique, 4 percent; Hair Trends, 3 percent; Jeans, 3 percent.

Piper’s study is based on a survey of over 13,500 U.S. teens.

Image courtesy Ugg