Is growth in the global e-commerce business slowing to a trickle?
While the e-commerce business is expected to double from 2023 to 2029 in actual volume (in U.S. dollars), according to data compiled in an updated Statista Market Insights survey, the annual growth rate is expected to contract significantly after peaking in 2025, according to a report compiled by Stocklytics.com.
For the first time in its short history, the global e-commerce industry is expected to gross over $4 trillion in revenue in 2024, nearly 15 percent more than in 2023. Although the market is expected to generate double-digit growth, the data compiled by Statista and presented in a report by Stocklytics.com suggests that will change in the next five years.
The projection data from Statista’s May 2024 report shows e-commerce growth increasing 14.6 percent in 2024, down from the 15.0 percent rate in its January 2024 data. Growth for 2025 is now expected to peak in 2025 at 16.4 percent, up from the prior projection for 16.0 percent growth, but is downhill in percentage growth rate moving into 2029.
According to data presented by Stocklytics.com, the annual growth rate in the e-commerce sector is expected to slow to 4.6 percent by 2029, or 69.3 percent lower than the forecasted 2024 growth rate.
Annual Growth Rate to Contract for Five Years in a Row
Stocklytics.com acknowledged in its latest report that the global e-commerce landscape has changed significantly over the past five years. New technologies, including AI, voice search, AR and VR-enhanced shopping, and personalized customer service voice search, have taken the online shopping experience to new levels, practically erasing the differences between buying online and shopping brick-and-mortar.
These changes have reportedly helped the e-commerce market draw more users and gross more revenue than ever before despite headwinds and setbacks, including supply chain issues, inflation, rising digital ad costs, and changing consumer behavior.
The Statista Market Insights survey shows just how significant that growth was and how big it is expected to be by 2029.
Revenue Change from 2024 to 2029 (in percentage)
Between 2019 and 2024, global e-commerce revenues have reportedly spiked by almost 90 percent, rising from $2.18 trillion to $4.11 trillion, according to the survey. After COVID-19 triggered a boom in online shopping, the market revenue grew by an average of 25 percent per year before declining in 2022 and 2023. Statista expects 2024 and 2025 to see high revenue growth rates again; however, after a recovery in 2024 and the forecasted peak in 2025, the market is expected to face a considerable slowdown, causing revenue to grow much less than in previous years.
According to Statista, the global e-commerce revenue will increase by 11.5 percent in 2026, almost 5 percent less than the 2025 rate, and hit $5.34 trillion. The downsizing trend will continue in 2027, with the annual growth rate moderating to 9.2 percent. Although the market revenue is forecasted to increase to almost $6.5 billion by 2029, the annual growth rate is now expected to contract to only 4.6 percent, just one-third of the growth rate projected for 2024. Stocklytics.com points out in its report that this represents a significant decline compared to Statista market projections from January when the forecast annual growth rate for 2029 stood at roughly 7 percent.
Significant Growth Moderation Across All Major Markets
The Statista survey also forecasts that all global regions will see a similar slowdown in e-commerce growth.
According to the survey, Asia, home to e-commerce giants Alibaba, AliExpress, JD.com, and Rakuten, is expected to see its annual growth rate in the e-commerce segment drop from 15.6 percent to 4.5 percent in the next five years. However, Asia will remain the world’s largest e-commerce market, generating $3.15 trillion, or more than half of total market revenue in 2029.
Statista data shows the revenue in the U.S. market, home to e-commerce giant Amazon, will jump to $2 trillion in 2029, up from $1.33 trillion this year, but the annual growth rate will contract from 14.6 percent to 4.7 percent. Europe follows with a 4.5 percent growth in 2029, compared to 11.8 percent this year and generating close to $1.0 trillion in revenue in the next five years.
Despite the apparent revenue growth slowdown, the global e-commerce market will still add more than one billion new users in the next five years, with its total number rising from 2.5 billion in 2024 to 3.6 billion in 2029, according to the Statista Market Insights survey.
To read the full story and view the statistics, go here.
Data by Statista, presented by Stocklytics.com
Image courtesy Adobe
