Citi Research released its quarterly Global Sporting Goods Survey last week to assess the overall market with a close eye on perceptions of the Nike and Jordan brands. The company surveyed 1,600 North American consumers, 1,000 Chinese consumers and 900 European consumers in early to mid-February to gauge the momentum of many Western and Chinese brands in North America, Greater China and Europe (UK, France and Germany).

North America Summary
In North America, Citi found that the macro/promotional environment looks very similar to previous quarters, suggesting the overall athletic/active environment is still promotional but does not appear to be improving or degrading from past quarters. The firm pointed out that the survey timing was before most of the tariff and layoff talks increased in the media.

Citi noted that its February survey results indicated that Nike remains top-of-mind with the consumer, getting top ranks in Net Promoter Score (NPS) and intent to purchase. As expected, Nike was followed closely by Adidas in the No. 2 spot, moving up from the No. 4 in December. Despite Nike’s challenges in North America, Citi said the brand is still perceived as the “Most Innovative” brand, followed by Adidas, which gained ground on Nike relative to its December survey.

Citi said brand perception is evaluated best with the Net Promoter Score (NPS) it established, which is the difference between respondents who would recommend a given brand to their friends and family and those who would not recommend a given brand to their friends and family. Citi noted that it only includes scores from survey participants who recently purchased from the brands. A positive NPS score means that more respondents would recommend a particular brand to their friends and family versus respondents who would not recommend a brand to their friends and family.

The February survey saw Nike retaining the highest NPS of all the brands surveyed at +43 in February (vs. +46 in December), followed by Adidas in the No.2 spot (up from No. 4 spot in December) at +36 (vs. +39 in December) and New Balance at +34 (vs. +30 in December). Lululemon took the No. 4 spot (from the No. 7 spot in December) at +34 (vs. +25 in December). Hoka’s NPS was +24 in February, up from +17 in December. On Running’s NPS was +5 in February vs. +16 in December.

“Intent to Purchase” is another key brand strength and perception indicator. Surveyed respondents, when asked which athletic brand they considered purchasing next, Nike again topped the list. Twenty-six percent of respondents in February said they planned to buy Nike, down slightly from 29 percent in December. Adidas was next at 18 percent (up from 12 percent in December), followed by New Balance at 9 percent (down slightly from 10 percent in December). Hoka was at 1 percent in February (down from 3 percent in December), and On was at 1 percent in February (in line with December), suggesting that most survey respondents still do not consider these growing brands highly.

In “Most Innovative,” Nike again took the No. 1 spot at 25 percent, down from 28 percent in December, and is still “significantly above” Adidas in the No. 2 spot at 11 percent, followed by New Balance at 10 percent and Under Armour at 8 percent (vs. 9 percent in December). Adidas and New Balance were both flat to their December by respondents.

“On the earnings call, we don’t expect to hear a major revelation on product, but we will listen for early product wins, whether it’s in running with the Vomero 18 or Pegasus Premium, or basketball,” BofA wrote in its note. “Signs of product wins will be the singular most important catalyst to reengage investors on the stock, in our view.”

China Summary
In China, Citi said its survey results suggest the region remains very promotional, consistent with past quarters, and the macro environment appears stable relative to the firm’s December survey.

In Citi’s February survey, 55 percent of Chinese respondents said they expect their disposable income to get somewhat or significantly better over the next 12 months relative to today, which is down from the 72 percent of respondents that answered that way in December but higher than 45 percent who provided that response in Citi’s September survey.

“While Nike and Adidas ranked in the top spots in terms of NPS and intent to purchase, we saw both Anta and Li Ning regain ground, sitting in the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, respectively,” Citi wrote in its summary. “Nike outranked Adidas (again) in terms of intent to purchase; however, Adidas continued to outrank Nike in terms of NPS. Our survey results indicate the Jordan brand remains weak in China (similar to December).”

Europe Summary
In Europe, Nike retook the No. 1 spot in Net Promoter Score, and Nike continued to score slightly better than Adidas in intent to purchase. Nike continued to rank the highest among European respondents who perceived the brand as “Most Innovative.” Citi said Europe’s macro/promotional environment looks similar to last quarter.

Images courtesy Nike