The expectations of a tough month for container deliveries in April were heightened last week by news reports of empty U.S. West Coast ports and estimates from the National Retail Federation (NRF) in its latest Port Tracker Report that estimated that shipping container traffic would decline for the first time since 2023. The report noted that the ports had not yet provided April data (see link at the bottom of this article for the NRF report).
The market will most likely expect to see a surge in deliveries over the next 90 days at a minimum, as the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on the tariff increases each country imposed on the other. The agreement came during a meeting in Switzerland over the weekend of May 10-11, 2025. The U.S. tariffs on China were cut to 30 percent from 145 percent, and the China tariffs on U.S. goods were cut to 10 percent from 125 percent as the two countries work to develop a long-term deal.
The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods still include tariffs of 20 percent due to two rounds of “fentanyl tariffs” that Trump imposed on China before the Liberation Day event. Those tariffs were also imposed on Mexico and Canada.
“In our view, this announcement is not only better than we expected but also better than the market would have expected back in March,” Deutsche Bank said in an early morning investor note.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted on CNBC Monday morning, May 12, that the U.S also had national security officials at the Geneva meetings over the weekend, and those officials had conversations with their Chinese counterparts to discuss the fentanyl issue and solutions. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was also at the lead table with Bessent and China’s Vice Premier of the State Council, He Lifeng.
“Tariffs imposed before April 2, including those dating back to U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, and other restrictions, such as the U.S. measures to end low-value package tariff exemptions, known as the ‘de minimis’ rule, appear to remain,” according to reporting from Reuters. This gives a lift to Amazon, which was up more than 8 percent in pre-market trading. Maintaining the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ exemption, which allows a company to avoid U.S. tariffs for shipments under $800, mostly affects direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites like Shein and Temu, which account for around 30 percent of the de minimis affected shipments, according to a recent congressional report.
“The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent said, adding that the tariffs were the equivalent of an embargo, reportedly a move neither side favored.
Now, the active lifestyle market’s brands and retailers will have their operations and finance teams working overtime this week to rebuild models and pricing plans again. Expect to see these businesses push factories to move holiday goods out the door before the end of July.
Image courtesy Port of Los Angeles
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See below for additional SGB Media coverage of the ongoing tariff and cargo shipment issues.
Import Cargo Levels Expected to See First Year-Over-Year Drop Since 2023
