Based on research conducted by BIGresearch fro the National Retail Federation, consumers this holiday are still see price driving their destination and they expect to hit the stores earlier this year to get what they need. On the receiving end, consumers are looking to pick out their presents more now than ever, with those looking for gift cards nearing the 50% point.

Based on the survey’s results retailers should gear up early and offer good value, while keeping keep selection strong and inventories tight. Getting the word out early that the good stuff will be gone early is recommended.
Retailers are expected to see their healthiest season in years, with NRF projecting a 5.7% increase in overall holiday sales over last year. Margins should be better this year as well, with retailers slashing inventories and managing product flow to reduce the prospect of high levels of promotional selling of overstocked goods.

Based on the BIGresearch survey, consumer spending this holiday season is expected to grow 3.6% to $672, compared with $649 in 2002 and $632 in 2001. On average, consumers plan to spend $518.44 on gifts this year according to the report.

The survey is based on responses from 8,234 shoppers polled in early October.

Consumers are still focusing on price even though buying power is seen as stronger this year than last year’ holiday season. Nearly 39% of the consumers surveyed will base their destination based on “sales or price discounts” and almost 21% said they would choose to shop at retailers with “every-day low prices”. Almost as many consumers, roughly 18% of respondents, said they planned to shop at stores based on their selection. Roughly 51% of consumers plan to take advantage of sales and promotional items to purchase non-gift items for themselves as well.

“Just because the economy is starting to come back does not mean consumers are going to stop behaving the way they've been in the past couple of years,” said Phil Rist, vice president of strategy for BIGresearch.

Discounters still seem to be the predominant destination for consumers, with just over 75% of those surveyed indicating that they plan to “shop at a discounter” this holiday. Department stores were second with 53% and specialty stores were indicated as a shopping destination by almost 37% of the respondents. Thirty-six percent said they would shop online.

Retailers may get a bigger holiday lift in October, which would be good news for those that think the strong September could hurt the month. Almost 43% of the consumers in the survey said they would start shopping in October, up almost 300 basis points from 39% last year.

Another 35% plan to begin shopping in November while the remaining 22% of consumers expect to wait until December.

NRF said they highly suggest consumers shop early this year. “With retailers continuing to manage their inventory very well, the golden rule for consumers this holiday is ‘Buy it when you see it,’” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “There’s no guarantee that the red sweater you’re eyeing will continue to be in stock as the holiday season nears.”