Nike continues to be the most popular brand at retail for back-to-school (BTS) footwear by a wide margin, according to Stifel’s 16th Annual Back-to-School Athletic Footwear Survey of major athletic footwear sellers.
However, Nike’s prioritization of direct-to-consumer (DTC) and strategic shift from the wholesale channel created opportunities for other brands, including Crocs, Hoka, New Balance, and On, to take shelf space and gain consumer mind share.
The findings in Stifel’s BTS survey come from visits and calls made to 110 stores, including Academy, Champs, Dick’s, Finish Line, Foot Locker, and Hibbett by Stifel’s Americas Sports and Lifestyle Brands analyst team, led by Jim Duffy, to witness the popularity of athletic footwear styles for boys and girls selling during the 2023 BTS season.
Stifel’s survey results tabulate the incidence of the most popular style references and mention other popular styles by brand and retailer. The company also conducted online checks.
The global wealth management and investment banking company’s research found Nike to be referenced as the most popular brand in 88.2 percent of in-store checks, representing a 4.1 percentage point decline year-over-year from BTS 2022 data and a 5.9 percentage point decline from Stifel’s February 2023 NBA All-Star Athletic Footwear Survey.
A notable gainer in market share was New Balance, which was referenced as the most popular brand by 7.7 percent of store checks, up from zero in Stifel’s 2022 BTS survey and 0.9 percent in its February 2023 survey.
Stifel noted that New Balance’s higher rating in the survey came following Foot Locker’s second-quarter analyst call, highlighting that New Balance sales grew “well over 100 percent” to become the retailer’s fourth largest brand. At the same time, FL disclosed that Nike represented 64 percent of sales in the quarter compared to 69 percent in the prior year period from the brand reducing its allocations to the retail chain and Foot Locker diversifying its product offering.
Also apparently taking Nike’s mind share was “Other” brands, cited among the most popular brands by 3.2 percent of store checks, up 1.4 percent year-over-year. Stifel attributed the improvement to gains by Hoka One One and On in sporting goods doors and Crocs in mall-based chains.
Stifel noted that On and Hoka are “demonstrating street style credibility” with increased mentions in BTS checks. Stifel wrote in the report, “Mall-based channels represent an avenue to reach a younger, more street-style-oriented consumer, and both On and Hoka are being deliberate about door expansion.”
Stifel also noted that Footlock had mentioned On and Hoka’s expansion in its analyst call.
Croc’s mention in the survey came despite the focus of store checks on athletic styles. Stifel wrote, “For the first time in our checks, Crocs was mentioned more than once (mentioned twice at Champs), and one of the mentions described Crocs as the best-selling footwear products in the store.”
Tracking the frequency of total references of favored brands, stores referenced Nike in 96 percent of checks, Jordan brand in 46 percent of checks, and Adidas and New Balance in 27 percent of checks, respectively.
New Balance was the largest year-over-year gainer, up 20 percentage points, with only 7 percent of stores referencing New Balance among popular brands in Stifel’s 2022 BTS survey and 17 percent in its February 2023 survey. Stifel cited the “growing popularity of the 550, 574, 990, and 2002 styles” while noting that New Balance’s positioning on retail partner websites “also improved significantly.”
The Jordan brand also showed notable improvement among popular brand mentions, up 7 percentage points year-over-year and in line with findings from Stifel’s February 2023 survey. Stifel wrote, “Low-top Jordan 1’s gained relevance vs. mids and highs in earlier periods, and retro popularity was mixed by version and colorway.”
Only a few other brands gained ground in popular brand references, including Hoka, up 3 percentage points to 5 percent; On, up 2 percentage points to 3 percent; Under Armour, up 1 percentage point to 3 percent; and Reebok, up 2 percentage points to 2 percent.
Nike was the largest year-over-year decliner, referenced in 4 percent percentage points fewer checks among popular brands.
Among hot styles for Nike, the Air Force 1 was the most frequently referenced popular style for Stifel’s BTS 2023 survey, cited in 62 percent of checks versus 57 percent in its BTS 2022 survey. Stifel wrote in the study, “The white-on-white court classic has maintained its appeal though notable is increasing references of other color variations. Improved in-stock levels have diminished scarcity and likely contributed to stronger conversion for retailers, perhaps suggesting Nike digital platforms are losing share of volume with better availability in wholesale channels.”
Nike Dunks were mentioned in 30 percent of stores, up 28 percentage points to mark the largest improvement of any style versus the prior year. Black and White Pandas were found to be by far the most sought-after colorway.
More budget-friendly Nike Court styles were mentioned in a combined 18 percent of stores, improving from 8 percent in Stifel’s February 2023 checks and 10 percent in the prior year. On the downside, popularity references of Nike lifestyle running silhouettes such as retro Air Max 90 and 97 declined year-over-year. Stifel also found Nike discounting most prevalent in Air Max styles for BTS, both at owned DTC and with retail partners.
Adidas’ references among popular brands were down 3 percentage points year-over-year, although mentions inflected positively from Stifel’s February 2023 study in the low 23 percent. Stifel attributed the improvement to the re-emergence of the casual low-top Adidas Samba as Ultraboost and NMD popularity fades.
Among other brands that lost mind share as popular brands, Vans was referenced by 11 percent of store checks, down 2 percentage points year-over-year. Stifel noted that Vans did show improvement from being referenced by only 7 percent of stores in February 2023 checks. Stifel wrote, “The inflection from February is encouraging, though the frequency of references is still too small to interpret as a trend.”
Converse was referenced among popular brands by 5 percent of store checks, declining 1 percentage point but was up 2 percentage points from the February 2022 survey.
Among other brands losing group, Brooks was referenced among popular brands by 5 percent of stores checked, down 3 percentage points year over year; HeyDude, 1 percent, losing 3 percentage points; and Asics, 1 percent, down 2 percentage points.
Puma was cited among popular brands by 5 percent of store checks, the same as the 2022 BTS season. Stifel noted that Puma’s popularity declined from its February 2023 checks timed to the NBA All-Star game (9 percent of stores), driven by seasonally lower popularity of the LaMelo Ball Collection.
Other key findings in Stifel’s 16th Annual Back-to-School Athletic Footwear Survey include:
- Improved inventory availability: Store checks found inventories better positioned to support demand. Stifel wrote in the study, “Stores are well-stocked with inventory of high-heat product into BTS ’23. In contrast to prior years, store employees commonly spoke to good availability of sizes in popular styles and colorways including the Air Force 1’s, Air Max, and New Balance styles.”
- Pricing actions on pause amid promotional pressures: Checks suggest pricing actions have stalled following steady increases in recent years as average selling prices face promotional pressures. Stifel stated, “Given industry-wide promotional dynamics across footwear and apparel, further pricing power could prove challenging and is likely to hinge on true innovation or scarcity.”
- Low-tops and suede trending: Strength is in low-top court styles like low-top Nike Dunks, Jordan 1’s, the New Balance 550, and terrace shoes like the Adidas Samba and Gazelle. The Adidas Samba, which frequently includes a suede overlay, appeared on our top-25 style list for the first time and was mentioned at 4 percent of checked stores.
