According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, retail sales nationwide increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in September, up from the unrevised 0.1 percent gain in August. The performance was slightly ahead of the 0.3 percent the Dow Jones forecasted.
Excluding autos, sales accelerated by 0.5 percent, better than the forecast of a 0.1 percent rise.
The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2 percent in September as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Sales in September were up 1.7 percent unadjusted year over year, compared with the CPI rate of 2.4 percent for the same period. In August, sales grew 2.2 percent year over year.
Among key channels in the active lifestyle space, sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and bookstores were up 0.3 percent month-to-month, improving from a 0.1 percent gain in August. Year over year, sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and bookstores declined 3.5 percent.
At clothing and clothing accessories stores, including footwear stores, sales were up 1.5 percent month-to-month, improving from a 0.6 percent gain in August. Sales were up 3.5 percent year over year.
Other positive month-to-month growth was shown at miscellaneous store retailers, up 4.0 percent; grocery, 1.0 percent; and bars and restaurants, also 1 percent.
Gas stations were down 1.6 percent month-to-month due to lower fuel prices, electronics and appliances stores were off 3.3 percent and furniture and home furnishing businesses were down 1.4 percent.
Jack Kleinhenz, the National Retail Federation’s Chief Economist, said September’s performance bodes well for holiday spending. “While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value.
Kleinhenz continued, “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
September’s core retail sales, as defined by the NRF, based on the census data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, were up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.4 percent unadjusted year over year.
Core retail sales were up 3.3 percent year over year for the first nine months, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
Earlier this week, the NRF reported its forecast for 2024 Holiday sales to also increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over the same time last year.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core U.S. retail sales were down a slight 0.28 percent seasonally adjusted month over month in September but up 0.94 percent year over year. That compared with increases of 0.17 percent month over month and 1.93 percent year over year in August.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, giving more accurate real-time results that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.
Image courtesy L.L. Bean
