Despite the recent strike by dockworkers at U.S. East and West Coast ports, which briefly shut down operations from Maine to Texas, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, in its recent Global Tracker Report, expect continued elevated shipment levels through October at the nations major container ports.
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers, and the nation’s economy that the strike was short-lived,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected.
“The strike wasn’t without impacts—retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again,” continued Gold.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast container ports on October 1 after their contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired; however, the strike lasted only three days, ending after the parties reached a tentative agreement on a wage increase and a short-term contract extension until January 15. The move came after the NRF led a coalition in asking President Biden to use “any and all authority” to end the strike.
U.S. East and West Coast ports handled an unusually large cargo volume this past spring. Due to the potential strike, importers brought in goods early and shifted several vessels to the West Coast, where a different union represents the dockworkers.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in August 2024, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report their final numbers. This was up 0.9 percent from July 2024 and 19.3 percent year-over-year for the highest volume since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ports have not reported September 2024 numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected 2.29 million TEU for the month, up 12.9 percent year-over-year. October is forecasted at 2.12 million TEU, up 3.1 percent year-over-year, slightly higher than last month’s forecast of 2.08 million TEU. The strike did not appear to affect national totals.
November is forecasted at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9 percent year-over-year, and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2 percent. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1 percent from 2023.
January 2025 is forecasted at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8 percent year-over- year, and February 2025 is forecasted at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2 percent because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
The import numbers follow the NRF’s forecast that 2024 retail sales, which exclude auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, will grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
Global Port Tracker, produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Image courtesy Port of Oakland
