Powered largely by pent-up demand and rising average selling prices, U.S. footwear revenue grew 28 percent from January through September 2021 compared to 2020, and increased by 8 percent versus 2019, according to the NPD Group.
By 2023 revenues the company forecasted to be 16 percent ahead of pre-pandemic 2019 levels, as average prices continue to rise, although the increase could vary by footwear category.
The company’s latest Future of Footwear report, based on its retail tracking data, showed that revenue growth within the performance and outdoor footwear categories will outperform the growth in the overall footwear market in 2023. Fashion footwear will lag in the market, although several silhouettes it expects will return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by 2023.
“Bright spots will be silhouettes that support the more casual and comfortable lifestyle consumers have become accustomed to,” said Beth Goldstein, fashion footwear and accessories analyst, the NPD Group. “However, that doesn’t mean that pumps, oxfords and loafers won’t return to some level of growth over the next few years. With the return to offices and events happening more gradually than initially anticipated, the retail rebound for these silhouettes will be more elongated.”
“On the sports side, the biggest news is the growth of running, walking and hiking shoes,” said Matt Powell, sports industry advisor, NPD Group. After strong growth in 2021, spurred by running and walking shoes, performance footwear is forecasted to stay steady at rates slightly higher than before the pandemic, and unit sales will increase. With the pandemic instilling in consumers a new appreciation for being outside, revenue and unit sales for hiking shoes are projected to continue their healthy annual rise through 2023.
“After years of continuous declines, the next two years are looking up for performance footwear,” said Powell. “Running will be the key area here, as I expect we’ll see performance-running shoes return as streetwear. It has been nine years since these shoes were viewed as a fashion trend, and today it will require brands and retailers to rethink the cadence and content of their footwear releases.”
