The best early season snowpack in three years and the highest Consumer Confidence Index since 2008 are coming together for a positive prognosis to the beginning of the 2013-14 ski season nationwide. The ongoing coast-to-coast cold front and snowstorms, as well as record Thanksgiving spending numbers, have ski resorts buzzing for the holiday season now in full effect.
According to Snow Sport Industry America (SIA)’s director of research Kelly Davis, snowfall explains about three-quarters of the variance in snow sports sales. “That’s a lot of explanation,” says Davis. “Due to the early winter storms across the U.S., we are expecting an uptick in sales and visitation in the snow sports market this holiday season.”
Davis says the other 25 percent of sales are affected by factors like the economy and social disruption. “If you want to know what’s going to happen with sales, just look at snowfall,” Davis said.
DestiMetrics (the Denver-based research group that tracks resort destination reservations across the country) founder and senior analyst Ralf Garrison couldn’t agree more. He says the two wild cards each winter are always the economy, specifically how consumers feel about discretionary spending, and Mother Nature. “There are two pistons in the engine: one is economy, the other is snow,” Garrison said. “This is the first time we’ve had both pistons churning at the start of the reservation season since 2007.”
According to Garrison, destination visitors to resorts impact local economies by a factor of 12 times more than day visitors, so reservation bookings is a number resort managers watch closely. And DestiMetrics data has overall projected revenues up 14.2 percent compared to last year at this time.
In Colorado, Wolf Creek received 19 inches of new snow last week with snow still falling, Monarch and Purgatory at Durango Mountain Resort reported 18 inches at press time, Telluride got more than 16, Ski Cooper reported 15 inches and Crested Butte had a foot of new snow.
Total recorded snowfall has already exceeded 100 inches for the season at Loveland Ski Area on the Continental Divide; and Aspen/Snowmass and Steamboat may surpass that benchmark before this storm subsides; and many other Colorado Ski Country USA (CSCUSA) resorts are close behind.
“With 79 inches of snow so far this season as of Dec. 6, early season conditions are great as ski patrol and our maintenance crews continue to work hard to get more terrain open,” said Copper Mountain Resort’s Stephanie Sweeney.
Continued Copper's Austyn Williams: “Last season Copper Mountain saw 8 inches in the entire month of November and this season’s November saw over two and a half feet over that (38 inches). In time for Thanksgiving Copper Mountain opened Rendezous Lift; last season this lift didn’t start turning until December 23. Also the new Storm King Lift opened on Saturday, December 7, which last year was not open to guests until January 5.”
And while most resorts with snowmaking have already been open for several weeks, recent weather patterns have accelerated the scheduled openings of others, and have improved conditions heading into the holiday vacation season.
“Mother Nature can be our best marketer in terms of getting the word out about snow conditions in Colorado,” said Jennifer Rudolph, communications director for CSCUSA. “Resorts are opening early and opening with ample terrain compared to average years. Things are setting up nicely for our holiday guests.”
It was also cold and snowing at higher elevations in California’s Sierra Mountains last week.
“The whole of the country is pretty much under the same economic umbrella,” continued Garrison. “And because of snowmaking, with these early season weather patterns we’re more concerned about cold temperatures, staying cold, than snowfall necessarily. Early season is looking good in the East although not as spectacular as the Rocky Mountains. We’re trending well and if things continue on the economy side we’ll end up 14 percent — snow is the second part of that equation.”
“This season is proving the old adage that those of us in the ski and snowboard business are basically farmers — when there's precipitation, our ‘crops’ succeed. Here in Santa Fe, the ski season is off to its best start in a decade, and the local mountain and local retailers are reaping the bounty,” said Peter Kray, former editor of the SIA Show Daily and founder of the Gear Institute. “The head buyer for Santa Fe Mountain Sports told me the pre-season ski swap posted some of its best sales in years, and the momentum has carried over to the shop as well. He can't keep climbing skins in stock, AT bindings from big- brand ski manufacturers such as Head and Atomic are flying off the shelves, and Rossignol's new Soul 7 ski is also doing well. People will spend money if they see a reason to do so, and that reason is snow.”
Garrison also said that reservations bookings and overall consumer enthusiasm is based as much on “snow equity” as it is on what’s happening right now. “Based on what happened at the end of last year, and last year ended up trending very well, is what’s in the mind of the consumer about snow when they’re thinking about reservations,” he said. “Mother nature has exceeded expectations because snow has been early and plentiful so far this year.” Experts are hoping that snow equity will produce the best skier numbers both in visitation and in spending since the record-setting 2007 season.
