An unusually warm start to fall sent a mild chill through the first buying show of the winter season in Knoxville, TN last week.

The Grassroots Summit, which kicks off outdoor apparel and footwear brands' sell-in season for next fall and winter, drew buyers from the Grassroots Outdoor Association's more than 100 retail members and 64 vendor members to the Knoxville Convention Center from Monday through noon Wednesday. At 1 p.m. Wednesday, Grassroots opened the floor to 40 additional retailers and 29 additional vendors from outside the buying group for its first ever Grassroots Connect show.

Grassroots President Wes Allen said Grassroots retailers year-to-date sales are running about 15 percent ahead of last year through September. But the United States experienced its second warmest September and fourth warmest October on record this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and that has caused some trepidation coming into November.

The next two months are critical for the independent outdoor specialty channel because they typically generate two thirds of annual sales and an even bigger share of gross profits as cold weather drives sales of higher-priced outerwear and boots. If cold weather gear does not start moving in coming weeks,  retailers will be forced to mark down winter product much earlier than planned. That could reduce their confidence leading up to apparel brands' early January deadlines for preseason orders.

“We had a good September, but it was slow last week,” noted Dave Haggerty, a vice president and buyer for Casual Adventure in Arlington, VA. “The temperature hit 79 degrees.”

POS data from SSI Outdoor Vantagepoint show that retailers were actually able to hold their apparel sales more or less flat in dollar terms in October despite a high-single-digit decline in unit sales by selling slightly fewer units of sportswear, activewear and raingear at higher prices than a year ago. That nearly offset low- to high-single-digit declines in dollar sales of outerwear and gloves.

At Casual Adventure, apparel sales came primarily from light weight fleece and rainwear last month.

Footwear holds up
SSI Outdoor Vantagepoint data show Footwear fared better thanks to strong unit growth in the Winter Boots and Fashion Boots, which retailers attribute to consumers' memories of last winter, when many retailers sold out of winter boots.

“Last year we had double-digit snowfalls back-to-back in late February so people were looking early,” said Woody DePerna, footwear buyer for J&H Lanmark Store in Lexington, KY. DePerna said he recently upped his orders for some Sorel and Bogs boots for upcoming deliveries based on early-season sales.

In September, sales at Massey's Outfitters grew 8 percent from year earlier levels thanks to strong sales of outerwear and winter boots, said owner Mike Massey. The trend continued last month.

“We sold 18 pair of winter boots last October and 130 this year,” Massey said. “Even though it's been warm, people are buying because they are afraid they won't be able to get product like last year.

Unit and dollars sales of equipment, meanwhile, grew in the low- and mid-single-digit range in October thanks to the warm weather, led by backpacking, camping and cycling gear.

The slow start to apparel sales complicates an already complicated task for apparel buyers, who have until early  January to review lines for next year, assort collections, colors and sizes and place preseason orders for those goods all while staying on top of fourth quarter inventory.

A few standouts
Salewa, Kuhl, Patagonia and SmartWool were singled out by several buyers as brands with momentum coming into the show. Retailers credited Salewa for being the first brand to bring Gore-Tex's new Surround venting technology to the U.S. market. Surround essentially adds openings in the sole or sides of a shoe (while maintaining waterproofness) to facilitate the venting of moisture created by the foot inside the boot. Since its U.S. reboot about five years ago, Salewa has grown from three or four Grassroots retailers to close to 40.

Apparel buyers seemed stingier with their praise.

“There are not a lot of brands stepping out with something new,” said Kaleigh Flippin, apparel buyer for Canfield's Outdoor Sporting Goods in Omaha, NE. “You can't buy just a performance item anymore and not worry about what it looks like. It has to look good and if it does not perform well, consumers are more willing to forgive it.”

Flippin praised SmartWool for “stepping out of the box” and “taking more risks” with some its colors and designs, while Canfield's Owner and Footwear Buyer Scott Marble praised the brand for investing in a new manufacturing process for socks that will be easy to explain to consumers.

Brooke Phibbs, an apparel buyer for Knoxville-based River Sports Outfitters, said outside of two or three brands, everything she saw was “the same-old, same old.”

Interestingly, both Flippin and Phibbs were hired into their positions with no to little buying experience in the last two years to replace veteran buyers who had left their stores.

“The industry is changing,” said Phibbs. “It's becoming more lifestyle oriented. It's still highly technical, but for the first  time the brands are reaching out  to offer more fashion.”

The march to fashion
Examples of that could be seen across the show floor. 

Chaco displayed 10 lace-up leather boots priced from $119 to $190 aimed at the casual fashion market. The boots are part of the largest offering of closed-toe shoes ever offered by the brand.

There were a growing number of poly-faced pieces featuring recycled wool insulation, including a Wool Loft insulated jacket ($175) and vest ($129) from Woolrich. Kuhl displayed a three-quarter-length apres-ski jacket with faux leather and fur featuring recycled wool insulation that is part of its growing line of fashion-forward outerwear.

Icebreaker was showing its Nomad jacket with a Helix skirt, featuring outer layers made from recycled polyester and insulation from recycled merino wool recovered from the factory floor. The jacket features merino wool next to skin.

No looking behind the curtain
In a bid to make the show as productive as possible, Grassroots imposed a new booth format this year that cloaked most merchandise and all meeting space behind black curtains. Overhead signage was banned and more space was created between meeting rooms to minimize noise.

The objective was to provide a private and quiet space where buyers could get quality face time with national sales managers to review the lines and discuss marketing. Some apparel buyers booked four-hour meetings.  
Though a few buyers grumbled the new format limited their view of merchandise from the floor and made it difficult to spot colleagues, buyers, reps and vendors generally agreed the format resulted in more productive meetings.

“I originally felt like a mouse in a maze,” said Mike Overton, owner of Outside Hilton Head of South Carolina. “Then I said, 'Wow!' I got a lot more done. The meetings were really focused and thoughtful. This is the most efficient show I've ever been to. “

Waiting for mercury to drop
While apparel buyers do amend in-season orders at Grassroots shows, they won't place their preseason orders until deadlines hit in the weeks before the Outdoor Retailer show in early January. If the cold weather does not arrive soon, buyers will have more reason than usual to delay their apparel and footwear orders as long as possible.

But even as the temperature approached 70 in Knoxville Tuesday, vendors and retailers were cheered by news of fresh snow in the Mountain West. By Wednesday, the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado Rockies and Utah's resorts had all experienced their first major snowstorms of the season. As of Friday, Alta had received 29 inches of snowfall since the start of the season, the temperature was hovering around 18 degrees and plans were on track to open Nov. 20.

–Charlie Lunan