The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 on the month, down 7.9 points from its prior reading and below the Dow Jones estimate of 87.7. It was the lowest reading since May 2020.
The Board’s Expectation Index, which measures how respondents look at the next six months, tumbled to 54.4, a decline of 12.5 points and the lowest reading since October 2011. Board officials said the reading is consistent with a recession.
Based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, the Present Situation Index decreased 0.9 points to 133.5.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board, in a statement.
“The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components — Business Conditions, Employment Prospects and Future Income — all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1 percent) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”
April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The decline was sharpest among consumers between ages 35 and 55 and in households earning over $125,000 a year.
A decline in consumer confidence was shared across all political affiliations.
Guichard added, “High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5 percent expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7 percent in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”
Write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy revealed that tariffs are now top-of-mind with consumers, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high. Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and negatively impacting the economy.
Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy; while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in gas prices and food items.
There were also numerous mentions by consumers of stock prices and uncertainty.
