The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 110.7 million in December, up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November in an indication that concerns about a recession in the U.S. are lessening. The Index improved for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest level since July.
December’s preliminary reading far exceeded economists’ expectations of 104.5, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose to 148.5 from 136.5 last month. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased to 85.6 in December, up from its downwardly revised reading of 77.4 in November.
“December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market, and personal income prospects over the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-to-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above. December’s write-in responses revealed the top issue affecting consumers remains rising prices in general, while politics, interest rates, and global conflicts all saw downticks as top concerns. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months abated in December to the lowest level seen this year—though two-thirds still perceive a downturn is possible in 2024.”
Peterson added: “Assessments of the present situation rose in December, as seen by the more positive views of business conditions and the employment situation. By contrast, when asked to assess their current family financial conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index), the proportion reporting “good” ticked down while those saying “bad” rose slightly. This suggests consumers’ view of their current finances may paint a more tempered picture than the perception that overall conditions are better than a month ago.”
“Consumer expectations for the next six months also increased in December, reflecting improved confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. Expectations that interest rates will rise in the year ahead plummeted to the lowest levels since January 2021, and consumers’ outlook for stock prices rose to levels of optimism last seen in mid-2021. Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations continued to recede and now stand at 5.6 percent. Consumers’ views of their expected family financial situation, six months hence (not included in calculating the Expectations Index) also improved in December. Likewise, on a month-to-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances rose moderately across the board, ending the year on a slightly more positive note.”
