The U.S. Census Bureau reported July retail sales data that show consumers continued to increase their spending even as the economy’s growth has moderated, according to commentary from the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The NRF reported July’s core retail sales, as defined by the organization, which is based on Census data but excludes automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants, were up 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m) and up 5.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y).

Core retail sales were reported to have been up 3.4 percent y/y for the first seven months of 2024, in line with the NRF’s forecast for full-year 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.

“July’s retail sales figures mirror the strength in the economy, which continues to expand even though there are pressures on growth,” said the NRF’s Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The midsummer boost from back-to-school and college spending, along with special deal days offered by retailers, clearly helped. Households are proceeding with measured spending and getting the benefit of falling retail prices despite still elevated prices for services. Even with the growth of the labor force cooling, consumer spending remains the backbone of the economy and is keeping the expansion on a positive path. We are all waiting to see what direction the Fed will take with interest rates.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in July were up 1 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month (m/m) and up 2.7 percent unadjusted y/y. That compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent m/m and an increase of 2 percent y/y in June.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food service sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, virtually unchanged, or down 0.2 percent m/m versus the revised June 2024 figure, but up just 1 percent (±0.5 percent) y/y versus July 2023.

The trailing three-month sales trend of total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period was up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)

According to the Census Bureau data, retail trade sales were up 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024 and up 2.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Non-store retailers were up 6.7 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 3.4 percent (±2.1 percent) from July 2023.

Other Key Category Trends

  • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instruments, and Bookstore sales were reported down 6.8 percent y/y from July 2023, doubling the year-over-year decline reported in June and down 0.1 percent versus June 2024.
  • General Merchandise Store sales were up 2.7 percent y/y, roughly in line with the June trend.
  • Department Stores were down 0.3 percent y/y in July, a sharp moderation from the 1.7 percent y/y increase reported in June.
  • Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores sales were up 2.5 percent y/y in July, down from the 3.8 percent y/y increase reported in June.
  • Electronics & Appliance Stores sales grew 5.2 percent y/y in July, posting a y/y variance that accelerated aggressively from the 1 percent increase reported for June 2024.

Image courtesy TJX