The U.S. Census Bureau Advance is reporting that estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023.

Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were said to be up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024, and up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 6.5 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while Non-store retailers (online and catalog) were up 9.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from November 2023, supporting widespread reports from retails and researchers that e-commerce easily outpaced the brick & mortar retail business in November as consumer jumped online early and often to get ahead with traffic-driving deals.

Commenting on the most recent report from the Census Bureau, National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz  said that following an early start to Holiday shopping in October, the new data shows solid retail sales continued as the holiday season officially got underway in November.

“November’s results show a strong start to the traditional holiday season,” Kleinhenz said. “These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending. This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December. The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in November were up 0.7 percent seasonally-adjusted month-over-month (m/m) and up 3.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y). That compared with increases of 0.5 percent m/m and 2.9 percent y/y in October as reported by the Census Bureau.

Among key channels in the active lifestyle space:

  • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Bookstores were up 0.9 percent m/m, rising sequentially from a 0.3 percent m/m gain in October. Year-over-year, sales at Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Bookstores declined 1.4 percent.
  • ClothingFootwear and Accessories stores sales were down 0.2 percent m/m, falling sequentially from a 1.5 percent gain in October. Sales were up 3.5 percent year-over-year.
  • General Merchandise Stores were down 0.1 percent m/m but jumped 3.1 percent y/y in November.
    • Department Stores, which is a subset of General Merchandise Stores in the CB reporting, were down 0.6 percent m/m in November, according to the Census Bureau data, but rose 1.4 percent year-over-year.
  • Internet & Catalog retailers were up and up 1.8 percent m/m from October 2024 and jumped 9.8 percent y/y from November 2023.

November’s Core Retail Sales – as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.4 percent seasonally-adjusted m/m and up 3.8 percent unadjusted y/y.

November’s results align with NRF’s forecast that Holiday season sales will grow 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent over Holiday 2023. NRF defines the Holiday season as November 1 through December 31, but nearly half (45 percent) of holiday shoppers planned to begin before then and 58 percent had started by early November.

Core Retail Sales were up 3.5 percent y/y for the first 11 months of the year through November, in line with NRF’s forecast that sales for the full year will also grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that core retail sales in November were down 0.19 percent m/m from October’s strong showing but up 1.4 percent y/y. That compared with increases of 0.83 percent m/m and 4.6 percent y/y in October.

Go Here for the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor coverage from SGB Media.