Southwick Associates in its 2023 Industry Outlook forecasted firearms and accessories sales to be near 2017 levels in 2023.
The Hunt & Fish research firm, based in Fernandina Beach, FL, noted in a release, “Several factors are positioned to hold back 2023 sales. First, a better balance in Congress will reduce consumer concerns about future sales restrictions. Simultaneously, consumers are gradually becoming aware of increased firearm and ammunition availability at retail which will ease ongoing scarcity-based demand. Discounting trends that began to show in 2022 will continue in 2023, likely dropping average revenue per sale. So far, inflation and increasing interest rates have not had notable impacts on sales.
“Several conditions will help drive 2023 sales. Demand for greater firearms and ammunition sales in some states will continue to fuel sales. In addition, even with demand dropping below 2020-2022 levels, the recent ‘Black Friday’ NICS check data shows consumer interest remains high. Other factors fueling 2023 firearm sales are supply concerns associated with ongoing global military concerns plus personal safety concerns with rising crime and commonly associated with recessions if one emerges.
“Considering all these factors combined, and barring any unforeseen events, we expect 2023’s retail firearms market to ease back to 2017 levels. 2017’s sales were above 2019’s volumes and one of the trade’s best years. Ammunition demand will also decline slightly, but likely not as much as firearm sales. Accessories sales should also do well as long as any potential recession remains mild. Manufacturers and distributors will likely not do as well as increasing retailer inventories will reduce replenishment orders in 2023.”
Nancy Bacon, vice president, Southwick Associates, said, “The factors driving sales are certainly more numerous and complex than we’ve seen before. However, looking at past years, current conditions remain reasonable for the 2023 firearms and accessories market. Different areas of the trade will do better than others, however, given inventory build-ups and interest rate impacts.”
