Retail sales grew again in October as consumers appear to have aside concerns about inflation, with many getting an early jump on holiday season shopping, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said.

“October retail sales data confirms that consumers continue to stretch their dollars on household priorities, including gifts for family and loved ones this holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “With a strong labor market and excess savings, we are expecting a solid five-day holiday shopping weekend, and retailers are prepared to meet their customers with the right inventory, competitive prices and great experiences. We are keeping a close eye on the railway labor negotiations and urge Congress to do everything in its power to avoid a labor strike this holiday season.”

“October’s performance is a strong foothold as we go into the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Spending has gradually slowed but remains solid. Consumers continue to show resiliency despite elevated inflation, rising borrowing costs and widespread macroeconomic uncertainties. With employment and wages growing and shoppers accessing accumulated savings, we expect the trend to continue. Early holiday deals that enticed customers appear to underly the October numbers, and more promotions will run in November and December, which are historically the big holiday shopping months.”

The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in October were up 1.3 percent from September and up 8.3 percent year-over-year. In September, sales were flat month over month but up 8.6 percent year over year.

The NRF’s calculation of retail sales, which excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, showed October was up 0.7 percent from September and up 6.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year. In September, sales were up 0.5 percent month over month and up 7.9 percent year-over-year.

NRF’s numbers were up 7.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average as of October. Sales were up 7.5 percent year-over-year for the first ten months, keeping results on track with NRF’s forecast that 2022 retail sales would grow between 6 percent and 8 percent over 2021. 

The NRF forecasted in early November that sales during the holiday season—defined as November through December—would also grow between 6 percent and 8 percent over 2021.

On a yearly basis, October sales were up in all but two retail categories, led by online sales, building materials stores and grocery stores, and increased in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

  • Online and other non-store sales were up 1.2 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 11.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year; 
  • Building materials and garden supply stores were up 1.1 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 9.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.4 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 6.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • Health and personal care stores were up 0.5 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 5.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • Clothing and clothing accessory stores were flat month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 2.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • General merchandise stores were down 0.2 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 1.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • Sporting goods stores were down 0.3 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 0.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 1.1 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, but down 0.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year; and
  • Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.3 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 12.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.