The National Retail Federation and the International Council for Shopping Centers have issued initial forecasts for the 2010 Holiday season, with each organization predicting initial sales to improve low- to mid-single digit growth versus the year-ago period.
The NRF’s forecast estimated that Holiday sales will increase 2.3% this year to $447.1 billion. While the NRF said that growth remains slightly lower than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.5%, it would be a marked improvement from both last year's 0.4% uptick and the dismal 3.9% holiday sales decline retailers experienced in 2008.
NRF's Holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including employment, industrial production, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales reports.
The NRF said that, much like they have in previous years, retailers are expected to focus on supply chain efficiencies and inventory control this Holiday season to limit their exposure to excess merchandise and unplanned markdowns. Retailers are also expected to leverage new channels, including mobile channels, to drive sales and provide added service to customers who want to shop anytime, anywhere.
The ICSC forecasted 2010 holiday sales to be slightly better than the NRF, with initial sales expectations indicating growth between 3.0% and 3.5% for November and December, making it the largest increase since the 2006 period (+4.4%). For the 2009 Holiday period, the ISCS, which tracks 31 major retail chains, reported retail sales up 1.8%.
