Bookings for the winter months surged ahead during November. Details around the increase in activity that moved a lackluster forecast for winter bookings as of October 31 to an improved outlook as of November 30 were released yesterday by DestiMetrics, the Business Intelligence division of Inntopia.

Participating resort properties in 17 mountain destinations across seven Western U.S. states reported that customer bookings made during November for arrival from November 2024 through April 2025 drove seasonal occupancy up 7.2 percent from where it was in October. And while aggregated daily rates were mostly flat, with only minor fluctuations up and down for the past year, the November occupancy at Western resorts increased and was not tied to lower rates. For the first time in months, the data collection reported that price sensitivity among consumers appeared to ease in November.

November Occupancy was Down but Improved from October
Last month, as of October 31, occupancy for November was down 8.9 percent compared to 2023. But in a sharp recovery, aggregated occupancy for November rose considerably, finishing the month down only 1.1 percent. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) edged up 1.9 percent to deliver a 0.8 percent increase in revenue. 

Winter Forecast Looking Up
Widespread snowfall has enabled most destination resorts to open in the past few weeks, and with consumers displaying a bit more confidence, bookings are ticking up in most, if not all, the winter months.

Compared to this time last year, the combination of occupancy in-the-bank and on-the-books for November through April is up 1.8 percent, a reversal of the 1.6 percent seasonal decline reported in October. 

While all months saw improvement in year-over-year occupancy performance, there was a split between early and late season numbers—with November through January down, including a 3.3 percent drop in December, but healthy gains on-the-books for February, up 6.5 percent, March up 7.4 percent and April up 9.9 percent.

Although aggregated daily rates slipped slightly from the end of October, as of November 30, ADR was up 1.2 percent for the complete winter season, with increases posted in four of the six months—most notably in April up 5.4 percent. Only February and March currently show scant declines. The growth in occupancy and rates is delivering a seasonal increase in revenue of three percent, a significant improvement from the very slight 0.3 percent gain in October.

“During presidential election years, we typically see a slowing in bookings during October and then a return to a slight pickup in November once the election is over, and we saw that this year but with an even stronger post-election rebound than usual—bookings were up 16 percent during November compared to last year, helping with a critical flip in seasonal occupancy from a negative to a positive position,” reported Tom Foley, senior vice president of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “Of course, good snowfall and the uptick in consumer optimism that we saw last month also played a crucial role in the eagerness of skiers and riders to book a mountain vacation.”

Economic Arrows Point Up
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 7.5 percent in November to close the month at 44,910.65—its highest monthly close and the fourth record-setting month in the past five months. Markets reacted favorably to the presidential election’s outcome in anticipation of easing regulations under a new administration. Improved consumer mood, strong spending and energized employment data also fueled Wall Street’s jump.

The Consumer Confidence  Index (CCI) and the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) both increased in November as the CCI rose to 111.7 points and its highest level since July 2023, while the CSI from the University of Michigan increased for the fifth consecutive month by rising 2.1 points to reach its highest mark since last April.

Respondents in both surveys cited positive employment news as a primary reason, along with Wall Street strength and the impact on savings and retirement accounts.

“While both Indexes are now above their 24-month average, price-sensitivity remains an issue in both the data from the CCI and CSI and also in some of the booking patterns we’re seeing for Winter 2024/25,” noted Foley.

The Unemployment Rate was up from 4.1 percent in October to 4.2 percent in November, but job creation rebounded, with employers adding 227,000 new positions. Additionally, the September and October job figures were revised upward for a combined 56,000 new positions added during those months.

Inflation increased from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent as monthly prices rose 0.3 percent during November, marking the largest month-over-month price increase since last April.

Watching…
Snowfall and the weather are central, as generous snowfall around the country can overcome most economic challenges. November snowfall was strong and widespread, allowing resorts to open on time and, in some cases, ahead of schedule. Snowstorms near major urban centers, like New York and Philadelphia, can also spark Western resort booking activity, although that was different in November.

Booking pace, the difference between bookings made last month for arrival in the next six months compared to the same time the previous year, was robust in November—ramping up from a low of 1.2 percent gain in October to a 16 percent through November 30.

Seasonal occupancy moved from negative to positive during November. Occupancy for the entire season rose from a 1.6 percent deficit as of October 31 to up 1.8 percent as of November 30; however, three of the winter months are still tracking behind last year at this time.

Holiday timing continues to pose challenges due to school break schedules, but November’s booking pace moved the needle appreciably for both December and January. December moved from a 7.6 percent decline to a 3.3 percent decline, while January improved from a 4.2 percent deficit to a 1.6 percent decline; however, strong bookings for arrivals in November were still not enough to offset the occupancy deficit recorded for the Thanksgiving holiday this year—with occupancy for the week down 4.8 percent compared to last year.

Length of Stay is beginning to elongate after nearly two years of being down year-over-year as consumers opted to shorten their resort stays rather than cancel or downgrade their lodging preferences. Although still down 0.10 nights for the winter season, it significantly improved from August 31 when it was down 0.27 nights.

“We saw a lot of positive weather and economic activity during November that bolstered bookings for the entire season and really changed the tone from the end of October,” said Foley. “Strong economic news is always helpful, especially as we still see some pricesensitivity, but we’re also seeing a few cracks appear in consumers’ resistance to high rates and we’ll be watching that very closely in the months ahead. In the meantime, and as always, this is when we count on Mother Nature to do her part and deliver plenty of the white stuff from coast to coast,” he concluded.

Methodology: DestiMetrics, part of the Business Intelligence platform for Stowe-based Inntopia, tracks lodging performance in resort destinations. The forward-looking reservation data is compiled and aggregated each month with individualized results for each region and distributed monthly to participating resorts. Approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 Western mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho contribute to the data pool and represent an aggregated 55 percent of all available rental units in those regions. Results may vary significantly among/between resorts and participating properties.

Image courtesy Viceroy Snowmass Resort