Traffic at the nations major retail container ports should reach a record high in August, then drop off slightly in September before hitting the years traditional peak in October, according to the most recent monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.
“Cargo volumes are continuing to grow in the buildup toward peak season,” Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “All of the U.S. ports we follow are operating without congestion from the harbor to the gate, and even though rail performance deteriorated slightly in May, pressure on intermodal train operations has eased. While container traffic is growing, its growing at a slower pace than the same time last year, which will help ensure that the system will have adequate capacity to provide acceptable performance over the next six months.”
August is forecast at 1.53 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) of container traffic, breaking last Octobers record of 1.51 million, while September is forecast at 1.49 million. October, traditionally the busiest month of the year as retailers bring in merchandise for the holiday sales season, is forecast at 1.54 million this year.
“Summer is only starting, but retailers are already looking ahead to the holiday season and the logistics of making sure merchandise is on the shelves when consumers come looking for it,” NRF Vice President and International Trade Counsel Erik Autor said. “The holiday season is the most important part of the year for our industry, so its essential that we starting looking at these numbers and watching for any problems as early as possible.”
All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast are currently rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.
Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.3 million TEU of container traffic in April, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 5.8 percent from April 2006 but up 2 percent from this March.
Volume continued up in May, which was estimated at 1.35 million TEU (down 1.2 percent from May 2006). June is forecast at 1.4 million TEU (down 0.17 percent from June 2006), July at 1.48 million TEU (up 6 percent from July 2006), August at 1.53 million TEU (up 3.3 percent from August 2006), September at 1.49 million TEU (flat from September 2006), and October at 1.54 million TEU (up 2 percent from September 2006). One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.
Port Trackers forecast period is six months, so numbers beyond October are not yet estimated, but cargo volume historically peaks in October before starting to slow in November.
