NRF Says October Retail Sales Signal Strong Holiday Spending

The NRF said that based on its analysis of advance estimates released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, increased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from September and 4.2 percent unadjusted from October 2012. Seasonally adjusted estimates adjust for differences in the retail calendar, such as when holidays fall, but not price changes.

 

The Census Bureau estimated adjusted sales by sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores increased 1.6 percent from September and 5.3 percent from October 2012. Adjusted sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores, including shoe stores, were estimated to have increased 1.4 percent from September and 3.8 percent from October 2012. Adjusted sales by nonstore retailers, which includes Internet and catalog retailers, increased 0.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 8.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

NRF officials said the figures pointed to a good holiday season ahead.

“Consumer spending is growing as we head into the holiday shopping season and the timing couldn’t be better,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers seem to have found some sense of confidence, driven, in part, by lower gas prices. While positive gains were seen in most retail categories, retailers will continue to rely on heavy promotions to drive traffic and sales this holiday season.”

Just three weeks ago, Shay and NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz expressed concern that the government shutdown in the first 16 days of October might dampen consumer spending going into the holidays, but the duo seemed to dismiss that caveat Wednesday.

 

 

“The ever-resilient consumer continues to deliver better economic news,” Kleinhenz said. “Various retail segments contributed to this month’s growth showing that there is an ongoing pent-up demand by consumers. Confidence and sales should continue to improve. As the holiday season draws closer and closer, NRF remains confident in a good holiday shopping and sales season, which will be in line with our forecast.”

 

 

In October, NRF released its holiday sales forecast, which indicated a 3.9 percent increase in sales over 2012. NRF believes that holiday sales will reach $602.1 billion this year.