According to U.S. Commerce Department data, November retail sales in the GAFS category, which includes most general merchandise categories, increased 4.8% from the same period last year and rose 0.6% from October. Sales in the sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores category dipped 2.2% to $6.75 bn versus the year-ago month.
Total November retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) rose 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted for the month and 4.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The rate of holiday sales growth is already much stronger than last year at this time; in November 2002, GAFS sales increased a mild 2.7 percent year-over-year. Decembers pace was even more sluggish, with GAFS sales increasing just 1.7 percent year-over-year.
“Novembers sales illustrate an improving economy and increasing consumer optimism,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “Though last months sales were solid, we expect an even better pace in December as consumers have yet to complete the bulk of their shopping.”
Electronics and appliances stores were the big winners in November, with sales soaring a strong 14.3 percent unadjusted for the year and rising 2.2 percent seasonally adjusted from October. Health and personal care stores also rose by 7.1 percent unadjusted for the year and 1.3 percent adjusted for the month. Additionally, clothing and clothing accessories stores saw strong growth with sales rising 4.3 percent unadjusted for the year and 1.1 percent adjusted month-to-month.
Since September 16, NRF has forecast a 5.7 percent increase in holiday sales (defined as GAFS sales in the months of November and December), which would be the highest increase since 1999.
