Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to hit the 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) mark for the second consecutive month in September and remain there in October, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“These are strong numbers and a sign retailers are optimistic about the Holiday season since they don’t import merchandise unless they think they can sell it,” commented NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The holiday season is now the top priority for everyone in the retail supply chain as merchants prepare for the rush of shoppers who will soon be buying gifts for friends and family. As the holidays approach, the recent ratification of the West Coast port labor agreement between the ILWU and PMA provides supply chain stability and certainty for retailers utilizing the West Coast ports.”

Meanwhile, the NRF said a restriction on the maximum draft of ships passing through the Panama Canal imposed this summer after drought conditions resulted in lower water levels had not materialized into the threat some had feared. With many ships carrying less-than-capacity loads or returning empty containers, most have complied with the restriction, and those awaiting passage as of mid-August are expected to complete their travel without delay, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“We have closely followed conditions at the Panama Canal,” Hackett said. “It now appears, however, that the situation has had little impact on the retail supply chain and is unlikely to be a problem as we head into the peak shipping season.”

* Forecast

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.91 million TEU (one 20-foot container or its equivalent) in July, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 4.4 percent from June but down 12.4 percent year over year.

Ports have not yet reported August numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2 million TEU, down 11.4 percent year-over-year but the first month since October 2022 to reach the 2 million mark. 

September and October are forecasted at 2 million TEU each for a potential three-month streak. (The number would be a 1.8 percent year-over-year drop for September but a 0.1 percent year-over-year gain for October.) 

November is forecasted at 1.96 million TEU, up 10.4 percent year-over-year, and December at 1.94 million TEU, up 12 percent year-over-year.

Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.3 million TEU, down 12.5 percent from last year. Imports for all of 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

January 2024 is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 5.4 percent to begin the new year.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Photo courtesy Port of Charleston, Graphic courtesy of NRF/Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker