The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.3 percent in November over the prior month, stronger than the 0.2 percent decline in October and better than the Dow Jones estimate for a decrease of 0.1 percent.
Year-over-year sales were up 4.1 percent, an increase from a gain of 2.2 percent year-over-year in October.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said November results reported by the U.S. Census Bureau “show holiday season retail sales appear likely to meet the National Retail Federation’s forecast.”
“Today’s report highlights consumers’ strength and continuing capacity to spend,” Kleinhenz said. “Jobs and wage gains together with falling energy prices have supported holiday shopping as we predicted. Lower inflation for goods has helped savvy consumers make smart decisions about holiday purchases. The year-over-year comparison shows spending is on track to meet our projection for a sound holiday shopping season.”
According to the Commerce Department, by category, sporting goods, hobby supplies, musical instruments, and book sales were up 0.2 percent year-over-year and 1.3 percent month-over-month in November.
Sales at clothing and accessories stores gained 1.3 percent year-over-year and improved 0.6 percent month-to-month. Sales at general merchandise stores were up 1.1 percent year-over-year and declined 0.2 percent month-to-month. Sales at department stores, including the general merchandise store classification, were down 5.2 percent year-over-year and down 2.5 percent month-to-month.
As defined by the NRF, core retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants, were up 3.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average as of November and up 3.7 percent for the first 11 months.
The Census numbers align with the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released on Monday, which forecasted a strong November. The Retail Monitor reported that core November retail sales were up 0.73 percent seasonally adjusted from October and up 4.17 percent unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with a month-over-month decrease of 0.03 percent and a year-over-year increase of 2.63 percent in October.
The results come as the NRF forecasted that holiday retail sales from November 1 through December 31, based on Census data but excluding automobiles, gas and restaurants, would increase between 3 percent and 4 percent over 2022 to a record total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
