At its annual investor meeting last week at its Beaverton headquarters, Nike, Inc. announced its goal to deliver $36 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2017. The company also stated that it expects to deliver revenues of $30 billion by fiscal year 2015, at the top end of its previously announced target range – revealed at its 2012 analyst meeting – of $28-30 billion.
In its fiscal year ended June 1, 2013, its companywide revenues were $25.3 billion.
For the Nike Brand, oversized growth is particularly expected to come from Apparel overall, its Women’s business across categories, and its e-commerce business.
The $36 billion target implies growth over the next four years at a top end of Nike management’s long-term growth target in the high single digit range. High-single digit growth is expected in developed markets and low-double digit growth in developing markets.
In North America, growth is expected in the high-single digits over the next four years, a slow down from the mid-teens expansion seen over the last three years but still adding nearly a billion in sales each year. Running, Basketball and Brand Jordan as well as growth opportunities such as Women’s are expected to drive sales. Nike officials again cited the region as the one best benefiting from its “Category Offense,” and its efforts to particularly engage and inspire consumers with its shop-in-shop concepts, DTC stores and online are particularly paying off.
In Western Europe, growth is expected in high single digit rate, reaching over $6 billion in revenue by fiscal 2017, led by Running, Football and Women’s. The UK, France and AGS (comprised of Austria, Germany and Switzerland) make up nearly 50 percent of its Western Europe business and are expected to drive “disproportionate growth” through fiscal 2017.
Growth in the Emerging Markets covering territories in each of the four hemispheres is expected to expand at mid-teens rate, reaching over $6.5 billion in revenue by fiscal 2017. The gains are expected by fueled by expanding distribution and the growth of the middle class in those areas. The Emerging Market gains are expected to be particularly fueled by Latin America, particularly Brazil, which is hosting both the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. Revenues in Brazil are now projected to reach $1 billion in FY14, two years earlier than the goal set at its investor meeting two years ago. Running, Global Football and Women’s are expected to be the major category drivers in the Emerging Markets.
Greater China’s growth is expected to be flat this year as the Nike Brand repositions the business by fine-tuning assortments to local consumers and realigning its retail structure. But revenues are expected to re-accelerate over the next few years, resulting in a low double-digit growth rate through fiscal 2017.
By channel, DTC revenue is expected to grow to roughly $8 billion, or about 24 percent of Nike Brand revenue, by fiscal 2017. DTC revenue has doubled in the last 4 years and now represents roughly 18 percent of total Nike Brand revenue. The gains have been driven by increased store productivity, new store openings and growth at nike.com, and those same factors are expected to support growth through fiscal 2017. Nike.com is expected to nearly quadruple from nearly $550 million in sales currently to $2 billion by fiscal 2017.
High single digit growth is still expected from Wholesale, which represents just over 80 percent of Nike Brand revenues currently. The gains are being particularly helped by the transformation to “premium category experiences,” through shop-in-shops at its retail partners and in partner-owned, Nike-branded stores outside the U.S.
By product category, footwear is expected to see high-single digit growth, led by the ongoing launch of new performance technologies and expansion of successful platforms such as Free, Lunar and Flyknit across categories and price points. Steady growth is expected in its Sportswear franchises, such as such as Air Max, Air Force One and Air Jordan.
Officials indicated that Nike Free has grown to an annual business of over $1 billion since it was launched in Running in 2004. As of FY13, nearly 50 percent of the Nike Free business was outside the Running category. Lunar has grown to nearly a $1 billion business and grew at double-digit rates in FY13 alone. The Air Max business surpassed $1 billion last year. Nike Sportswear, its lifestyle footwear business, is a $5.6 billion business, its largest category.
Apparel is expected to deliver low double-digit growth, fueled by innovations such as Dri-Fit Knit, Dri-Fit Wool and Nike Pro, as well as shop-in-shops and other efforts that integrate Footwear, Apparel and Equipment in a specific category.
The Women’s business overall is expected to grow from $4 billion to $7 billion by fiscal 2017. The Nike Brand Women’s business is growing faster than its Men’s business overall but still overall makes up less than 25 percent of its overall business in North America. The growth is expected to be accelerated by leveraging its DTC model and working with wholesale partners on improved presentations.
Highlights of recent successes in Women’s include the Nike Lunarglide, which reached a combined 6 million women’s pairs in FY13. Nike Sportswear, launched a year ago, is projected to be a $100 million franchise by the end of FY14. The Legend tight is also a hit. The NTC (Nike Training club) app, designed just for women, is now the number one Health and Fitness app in 45 markets with over 10 million downloads. In August, an extension of its NTC app was rolled out in 19 doors across North America and Western Europe and on NIKE.com with strong success.
Particularly strong growth is also expected for Running, expected to add nearly $2 billion in revenues over the next four years. Led by its LeBron, Kobe and Kevin Durant franchises, its Young Athletes business grew double digits in FY13 to over $3 billion, including Brand Jordan, and is slated to see $1 billion in incremental growth by fiscal 2017.
Services, anchored primarily in the digital space and represented by NIKE+ Running, has “significant” potential, but will remain a small portion of fiscal 2017 revenues.
Overall, the Nike Brand is expected to add nearly $10 billion of incremental revenue over the next four years through FY17. In its June 2013 fiscal year, the brand’s revenues were $23.9 billion.
Converse is projected to deliver mid-teens growth through FY17, with modest growth from the Chuck Taylor franchise and “more rapid growth” from the expansion of other Converse brands such as Cons and Jack Purcell, new Apparel offerings, DTC expansion and conversion of additional markets to direct distribution. Overall, sales are expected to reach $3 billion, up from $1.45 billion in its June 2013 fiscal year. Nike officials noted that Converse’s revenues in fiscal 2013 were almost six times what they were when it acquired the brand in 2003.
EPS is expected to expand mid-teens over the next four years, supported by high single digit revenue growth, 30 to 50 basis points of annual gross margin expansion on average, and modest leverage in SG&A. Successful innovation and creating more compelling retail experiences is expected to provide Nike with pricing power to bolster margins.