According to Stifel’s annual back-to-school athletic footwear survey, retail checks are underscoring Nike’s resurgence in the North American footwear market and Vans continued brand heat. Adidas lost some momentum off its recent hot streak.

Nike brand styles were referenced as the most popular choice in 67 percent of retail checks. Nike’s popularity was slightly down from most-popular mentions of 69 percent in 2017, but the mentions were spread across more styles. In a note to clients, Jim Duffy, the lead analyst at Stifel, said the checks show Nike is seeing “breadth of strength across styles, a favorable mix to higher ASP styles, momentum from new offerings, and tight inventories with key channel partners.”

Nike’s overall popular-style references improved to 98 percent of checks from 95 in 2017. Duffy wrote, “Nike’s brand dominance continues to be a distinguishing factor and we are encouraged by the breadth of popular Nike styles and clear signs of building momentum from new innovations/styles.”

Among newer platforms, frequent popularity mentions were heard around the Nike Air Max 270 and Epic React in their first year of existence. Duffy wrote that this suggests the potential for these platforms to become billion dollar franchises. Numerous mentions of the VaporMax also shows that platform’s potential for growth.

The three most popular shoes for Nike were the Nike Huarache, Nike Air Max 270, and Nike Free RN.

Adidas was mentioned as most popular brand choice in 26 percent of checks, down from 31 percent in 2017. The decline was attributed to a lack of newness. Duffy wrote in the note, “Checks show ongoing popularity of lifestyle athletic product platforms, primarily the UltraBoost and NMD, though heritage styles (Stan Smith and Superstar) have lost interest and Adidas has no notable new offerings in the marketplace to drive popularity and build on 2017 momentum.”

Adidas is still comfortably ahead versus 2016, when Adidas ranked as the most popular shoe in 14 percent of BTS checks. General popularity references also increased modestly year-over-year in the latest survey for Adidas to 69 percent of calls from 67 percent of 2017 calls.

Meanwhile, Vans’ growing popularity as well as the brand’s expanded distribution is driving non-Nike and non-Adidas references as most popular to an eight-year high, according to the report. Vans was mentioned as most popular styles in 3.2 percent of checks while other brands earned 3.3 percent. In the 2017 BTS survey, Nike and Adidas accounted for 100 percent of most-popular calls.

Overall, Vans was mentioned among popular styles in 15 percent of Stifel’s 2018 BTS checks compared to 3 percent of 2017 BTS checks.

Converse references declined to 3 percent of mentions in checks from 8 percent during 2017 checks. Asics and Brooks were each referenced in 3 percent of checks, up from each less than 1 percent in 2017 checks.

Under Armour references climbed to year-over-year to 12 percent of calls compared to 8 percent in 2017. Duffy wrote, “References to Under Armour popularity were split between Academy and Dick’s underscoring relevance in the Sporting Goods channel but mall based retailer references were minimal.

Overall, the popularity of styles this year became more fragmented across additional categories and across more styles with colors becoming a larger consideration for girls.

While Vans is supporting growth in the casual category, lifestyle and running categories continue to gain share. Standouts include Huarache, Air Max 270, Free RN and Roshe from Nike, and the UltraBoost, NMD, Cloudfoam and Swift Run from Adidas. While competing for attention from new styles such as the Air Max, the Air Force 1 and Jordan brand basketball silhouettes “remain strong” and low inventories and out-of-stock situations suggest demand is ahead of supply.

As part of its survey, Stifel visited and called over 100 stores (Dick’s, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs, and Hibbett Sports) in the BTS season to assess popularity of BTS styles for both boys and girls. Survey results are tabulated by brand, incidence of most popular style references, and mentions of other popular styles.

Photo courtesy Nike