The U.S. economy is expected to slow to 1.3 percent growth this year, as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, according to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) forecast released on Monday, citing a survey of forecasters.
The June 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 42 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for the remainder of 2025/26, was conducted from May 27 to June 2.
“The NABE Outlook Survey panel’s forecasts for economic growth in 2025 and 2026 are little changed from NABE’s special April Flash Survey,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company, “but they are lower than the pre-April 2 projections.”
“The median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 1.3 percent in 2025 and 1.4 percent in 2026, down from 1.9 percent projected for both years in the pre-April 2 Outlook survey. In addition, a majority of respondents, 78 percent, see tariff impacts as the greatest downside risk to economic growth over the next 12 months,” continued Morris.
“The median forecasts for inflation for this year have eased from the April Flash Survey but remain elevated and above the pre-April 2 forecasts,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The personal consumption expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is forecasted to be 3.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. While it is projected to cool to 2.3 percent by the end of 2026, this still exceeds the Fed’s 2 percent target. Panelists look for the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the federal funds rate by half a percentage point by year-end, followed by another half-percentage-point reduction in 2026.”
NABE reports over 2,900 members and 44 chapters across the nation.
