Initial analysis of May retail sales, published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, suggests that consumers pulled spending forward into April. As reported here in April, much of the increase for the month was likely due in large part to the shift in the Easter holiday from March 2024 to April 2025, as well as consumers pulling purchases forward to avoid higher tariff-based prices at retail.

Still, CNBC wrote Tuesday morning, June 17, that “consumer spending pulled back sharply in May, weighed by declining gas sales and a looming unease over where the economy is headed.” Reporting on air, CNBC acknowledged the potential for the pull-forward in spending.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) month-over-month (m/m) from April 2025. Dow Jones consensus estimates called for a 0.9 percent m/m decline in May retail sales. The decline followed a 0.1 percent m/m decline in April.

Sales were up 3.3 percent (±0.5 percent) year-over-year (y/y) from May 2024.

Total sales for the March 2025 through May 2025 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.4 percent) y/y. The percent change from March 2025 to April 2025 was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent).

Excluding autos, sales declined 0.3 percent m/m, also worse than the estimate for a gain of 0.1 percent. That number could be affected by full-forward as consumers ruched to purchase cars and trucks before increased tariffs kicked in. A 25 percent duty on imported motor vehicles and trucks came into effect in April.

Retail trade sales were down 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) m/m from April 2025 and up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) y/y from May last year.

  • Non-store retailers (E-commerce) sales were up 8.3 percent (±1.4 percent) versus last year and up 0.9 percent m/m.
  • Clothing, footwear and accessories stores posted a 3.7 percent increase year-over-year in May, or a 0.8 percent increase m/m.
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores posted a 1.8 percent y/y increase and a 1.3 percent m/m increase.
  • Department Stores were down 2.8 percent y/y in May, translating to a 0.4 percent decline month-over-month from April 2025.
  • Building materials and garden stores saw sales decline 2.7 percent, while sliding energy prices pushed gasoline station receipts down 2.0 percent. Motor vehicles and parts retailers were off 3.5 percent, while bars and restaurants saw sales decline 0.9 percent.

Reuters is suggesting that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, slowed sharply in the first quarter and could remain moderate in the April-June quarter.

The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting GDP rebounding at a 3.8 percent annualized rate in the second quarter. The anticipated surge will largely reflect a reversal in imports, which have fallen sharply as the front-loading of goods fizzled. The economy contracted at a 0.2 percent pace in the January-March quarter.

Image courtesy Dick’s Sporting Goods