Overdue snowfall in many regions helped boost February bookings so that overall actual occupancy in February among participating MTRiP* destinations was only down two percent for the month while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) actually notched up 2.7 percent compared to the same month last year. February snowstorms clearly made their mark in the data as reservations taken in February for arrival in February were up 6.2 percent compared to the same month last year.
“Despite uncooperative weather patterns and the third warmest winter in the U.S.’s recorded history, skiers and riders still tracked the snow and lodging rates and showed up when the snow flew, or where their perception of ‘snow equity’ from previous experiences was strongest,” reported Ralf Garrison, director of Mountain Travel Research Program (MTRiP). “Although overnight lodging occupancy was down slightly for the month, it was better than we feared, and in some cases, offset by surprising strength in rate,” he added.
The monthly report also revealed figures for the remainder of the ski season and the coming summer. As of Feb. 29, on-the-books occupancy for March is down 3.8 percent compared to last year with ADR up slightly-1.1 percent. The lure of a mountain vacation seems to be holding as the six-month (March-August) preview showed that year-over-year occupancy is up 3.4 percent compared to the same time last year with increases in five of the next six months-all but March.
While acknowledging the weather has an impact, the monthly MTRiP report includes an assessment of broader economic indicators and their potential impact on the mountain travel industry.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up for the fifth consecutive month and up 5.9 percent higher than the same time last year. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent from the previous month but was down from nine percent last February and with 227,000 new jobs added during the month, marked the eighth consecutive month when unemployment has either declined or remained unchanged. The most dramatic shift was in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which jumped 15.1 percent in February to 70. 8 points-just 1.2 points shy of its four-year high last February of 72.
“Employers are hiring at long last in significant and sustained numbers, and combined with increased consumer spending and confidence, Wall Street knows a good thing when it sees it,” observes Tom Foley, operations director for MTRiP. “These February numbers are definitely good news for the economy but as far as unemployment goes, there is still a pretty deep hole that needs to be filled to get the rate down to a more acceptable level of four to five percent,” he cautions.
The report cited increases in both the Travel Price Index and the Consumer Price Index as cause for concern. According to the MTRiP analysis, both upticks were driven primarily by the recent jump in fuel costs since gas prices impact the cost of virtually all consumer goods as well as the well-known “pain at the pump.”
“The environment has both literally and figuratively shifted 180 degrees this year and as we’ve seen the economy surge in a positive direction, weather became the trump card, snow became strategic and results varied accordingly,” explained Garrison. “Decent weather returned mid-season to help generate some additional late season demand but not enough for a full recovery in most cases although in a few resorts, overall destination revenues may end up flat or even slightly ahead of last year,” he adds.
Garrison was philosophical about how the season has unfolded. “Despite the challenges, many mountain destinations seem to have done a good job managing ‘the hand they were dealt’ by controlling the elements they could-slope maintenance and attention to guest services. But, how guests will remember their experience this year remains to be seen and is likely to show up in the ‘snow equity’ formula next season,” he concluded.
*Data is derived from a sample of 265 property management companies in 15 mountain destination communities, representing 24,000 rooms across Colorado, Utah, California and Oregon and may not reflect the entire mountain destination travel industry. Results may vary significantly among/between resorts and participating properties.
