Sales at major retail chains rose by 1.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 21 compared with the comparable week in 2012, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. On a year-over-year basis, the pace of sales also improved and grew by 2.7 percent.
“Consumers reported in the ICSC-GS consumer tracking survey that the average holiday-gift completion rate rose to 83.5 percent though Sunday-close to last year’s 84.0 percent at a comparable time, which is good news for retailers and the industry,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. “With only a day remaining to wrap up their holiday shopping, it is no surprise that 31 percent of consumers plan to shop on Christmas Eve,” added Niemira.
For December ICSC Research expects monthly sales will increase between 3.0 percent and 4.0 percent as the promotional environment continues to be intense.
Week Ending Index 1977=100 Year/Year Change Weekly Change
21-Dec-13 569.0 2.7% 1.4%
14-Dec-13 561.1 2.0% 4.8%
07-Dec-13 535.2 1.5% -1.6%
30-Nov-13 544.1 2.5% -2.8%
The Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. This index measures U.S. nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand. The weekly index is constructed as a sales-weighted geometric average growth rate to preserve long-term consistency and is statistically benchmarked to a broad-based monthly retail industry sales aggregate that currently represents a sampling of leading retail chain stores, which also is compiled by ICSC. A representative sample of those major retailers has been used as a control group to extrapolate the weekly sales index. As such, the weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers. The standard period used for the index is Sunday through Saturday, even though some retailers use a different weekly accounting period. The weekly sales index is presented on an adjusted basis to account for normal seasonality and to counter other data anomalies. Weekly seasonal adjustment is at best difficult for chain store sales given that retailers can and often do shift promotions to counter typical shifts in the calendar. Nonetheless, the approach to weekly seasonal adjustment used follows from the Piser Method, which was popular in the early 1930s and became the standard for weekly adjustment.
Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its more than 60,000 members in over 90 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials.
