The Ernst & Young LLP Americas Retail and Consumer Products Group anticipates that the 2004 retail holiday sales increase for November and December will be between 6% to 7% compared to a 5.7% increase for the same period last year. The robust sales seen in the first half of 2004 will likely moderate because of higher oil costs, a slight rise in unemployment, and growing consumer debt levels.
According to Jay McIntosh, Americas Director of Retail and Consumer Products for Ernst & Young, “This should be another healthy holiday season, but higher prices at the pump will have a two-fold effect: higher distribution costs for suppliers and retailers and less disposable income for consumers. Apparel and consumer electronics again will be two of the best-performing segments, and Internet sales and gift cards will continue to grow.”
This is a preliminary forecast based on current market indicators. A final holiday forecast — based on 13 years of data, including stock market performance, consumer confidence, unemployment rates and historical relationships between retailers and their customers — will be issued in early November.
